Federer into Madrid Semifinals

Roger Federer followed off his one-sided victory over Richard Gasquet in the 3rd round to put together another complete performance in a 64 64 victory over David Ferrer in the quarterfinals.  The Spaniard was attempting to win his first match against Federer in 13 tries, but it was not to be, as Roger was strong on serve and Ferrer was troubled by the Swiss's presence on the other side of the net.

Ferrer escaped from the first game of the match even though he surrendered three straight double faults.  Sadly for him, he was broken in his next service game, which cost him the set.  Federer held out to take the opener and played wonderfully well.  In the second set, it was closer, and in the ninth game, Federer turned up the heat and struck gold, breaking Ferrer.  He capped off the win with a hold to book his spot in the semifinals.

Roger was superb on serve from start to finish and put up incredible numbers.  His first serves went in 78% of the time, and on those first serves, he won 86% of the points.  He also won 9 out of 10 points on his 2nd serves, showing that he backed it up nicely.  He fired 7 aces to go along with 0 double faults (as opposed to Ferrer's 7 doubles).  He did not face a break point, so Ferrer literally did not have any chance to hurt Roger, especially when he was struggling with his serve and forehand.

As far as I can tell, the Fedmeister is playing some incredible tennis right now.  He is serving with supreme efficiency, is returning decently, and looks comfortable from the ground.  For how much has been made about the blue clay and the difficulty of moving on it, Fed seems to be moving just fine - or at least as well as he moves on any other clay court.

The #1 seed Novak Djokovic was upset by his countryman and World #8 Janko Tipsarevic 76(2) 63.  Djokovic never looked himself out on the court (go figure) and Tipsarevic played with composure to beat Novak for the second time in his last three matches against him. Janko served remarkably well, and he saved all seven break points he faced - uncharacteristic for Djokovic to be so poor in his break point conversion - overall, the man with the glasses deserved the victory as he was simply the better man on the day through and through.
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There has been a lot of controversy surrounding the new blue clay courts introduced to Madrid this year, and it has become a major issue specifically in the past two days with both Nadal and Djokovic getting eliminated.  They have been the most vocal in their displeasure of the blue clay, and it certainly added ammunition to their causes when they exited early.  It is questionable whether they would be so vocal in their criticism if they were still in the tournament.

In my humble opinion, both the #1 and #2 players in the world are handling this situation unprofessionally.  It is not as if they are the only two players who are playing on the blue clay.  Their slayers, Verdasco and Tipsarevic, played incredibly well on it and in the end, came out on top.  Other players, such as Federer, del Potro, and Berdych, have thrived on the surface.  At the end of the day, Djokovic and Nadal's vocal criticisms have a lot to do with the fact that they lost, and that they were unable to play their best tennis.

It's good to point out that Madrid is played at high altitude.  The court has always played differently (faster) than it's fellow Masters events, Monte Carlo and Rome.  (I say "always" as in since 2009)  The conditions in Madrid favour aggressive, attacking players, and punishes those that defend too much.  Notice how the four semifinalists, Federer, del Potro, Berdych, and Tipsarevic, are all first-strike hitters?  And Nadal and Djokovic are baseline counter-punchers that look to extend rallies and grind out points?  In their defeats, they both played too defensively and it cost them.

I'm not suggesting that the blue clay is perfect.  It is most certainly not.  But the fact of the matter is that the clay in Madrid has always had issues before this year, and yet the complaints are only coming out now because the blue clay was instated.  Tennis is a dynamic sport with many variables in wind, sun, heat, and court surface.  Adaptability was once a major part of the game, but now, with the homogenization of the courts, players are no longer forced to adapt to different court speeds.  Roger had this to say on that issue:

"When I came on Tour in '98 I had to adapt to different speeds very week.  These days players have same speed everywhere you go."

This is a mighty shame, and the fact that Roger played for a long time in an era where the courts were more diverse certainly allows him to speak wisely on the matter.  I am not even sure if Roger actually has much of a problem on the courts anymore, since he seems to be moving wonderfully.  Part of me thinks he just agreed with Nadal to avoid burning any bridges with him - since they have been butting heads recently.  However, he did say that, as tennis players, their job is to adapt to changing conditions they face.

Overall, Nadal and Djokovic have only hurt themselves by being negative about the blue courts and resigning themselves to disliking them, instead of trying to adapt and make the best of a bad situation.

It is unfortunate that the quality of tennis being played in this Madrid tournament has been overshadowed by this court controversy.  Federer and Ferrer put on a fine display of tennis, as did Federer and Raonic a few days ago.  There have been many captivating matches.  And, believe it or not, there have been no injuries this week in Madrid, whereas there were a few in Monte Carlo - so that is a point against the courts being a "safety hazard," as Nadal and Djokovic have stated numerous times.  Federer, del Potro, Berdych, and Tipsarevic are playing some of their best tennis of the year on this blue clay.

If Nadal and Djokovic choose not to return to Madrid next year, I will not mind, but it will be a major blow to tennis from a commercial standpoint, as the tournament won't have two of its top names, and Rafa, the event's most popular player, won't be there.  For all we know, next year, the blue clay will be much better and the two of them will have missed the event for no reason.  I do hope this matter gets settled within the year, because all this off-court drama is ruining the actual experience of watching elite tennis.
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The semifinal matches should be fun.  We have Federer vs Tipsarevic and Berdych vs del Potro.  I would give the edge to Federer and Delpo, but the latter's match should be much closer.  Fed hasn't played Tipsarevic many times so he'll be on sharp alert for the Serb's highly effective play.

Trying to get through Madrid unscathed,

Kyle.

Federer Cruises Into Quarters

After avoiding early elimination in Madrid at the hands of Milos Raonic, Roger Federer had a much easier time in the 3rd round, dispatching Richard Gasquet 63 62 in 58 minutes.  It was a very one-sided match from start to finish, but it was beneficial for Roger to get off the court quickly as he had been on court for over two hours against Raonic.

Federer looked much better overall against the Frenchman than he did against the Canadian, although Gasquet was much easier competition.  He had also made the final of Estoril last week so he was playing on short rest.  Still, this match was all Federer, and predictably so.  The Swiss Master always plays incredibly well coming off the heels of a tight match, and this one was no different.

Oh Roger....

Next up, The Fed will play David Ferrer, whom he holds a 12-0 record against.  Ferrer saved a few match points to beat countryman (and one of my favourite players) Nicolas Almagro in a 10-8 third set tiebreak.  Ferrer has been a guy that has never truly given Roger any real trouble, but clay is his best surface, and he did push Fed to three sets in Madrid two years ago.  If Roger is on his game though, he should win in the end.  Ferrer has played a lot of tennis this year and Fed seems to be comfortable on the blue clay movement-wise, so I do not see him losing.

The biggest upset of the day, by far, was Fernando Verdasco defeating Rafael Nadal for the first time ever, 63 36 75.  He had previously gone 13 matches without a win, but as the saying goes, "nobody beats Fernando Verdasco fourteen times in a row."  It was a back-and-forth match right from the start, and it was as if neither player wanted to win.  There were many breaks for both guys.  In the end, Nadal lost 5 straight games from 5-2 up in the 3rd set and lost very uncharacteristically.

Happiest moment of his life?  Maybe.

After the match, Nadal cited that he would not play in Madrid next year if the courts remain blue.  I can almost guarantee he would not be saying the same thing had he not been taken out in the 3rd round and went onto, say, win the event.  Of course, the blue clay has been criticized a lot by many of the top players, but the bottom line is that everyone is playing on the same court, so Rafa can't really use it as an excuse when other players are flourishing on the new colour (say, Federer, del Potro, Verdasco....).

Rafa's early exit opens up his half of the draw for Juan Martin del Potro to quietly sneak into the finals, which he seems likely to do.  He manhandled Marin Cilic 62 64.  In other action, Djokovic edged Stan Wawrinka 76(5) 64, Berdych destroyed Monfils 61 61, and there were many close three set matches; Janko Tipsarevic beat Gilles Simon 76(3) 57 61, while Alexandr Dolgopolov upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 75 36 76(2).

It looks very likely we will see a Federer vs Djokovic semifinal.  The quarterfinal matches are as follows:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs (7) Janko Tipsarevic
(3) Roger Federer vs (5) David Ferrer
(6) Tomas Berdych vs (15) Fernando Verdasco
(10) Juan Martin del Potro vs (16) Alexandr Dolgopolov

In my view, this is Federer's tournament to lose now.  Djokovic has not looked like the same player since the Australian Open in my estimation, and I honestly think Roger can beat him.  Delpo would be his biggest threat of a potential finalist, and even though Roger has not lost a set against the Argentine in their past 5 meetings, the big man is very dangerous, and Fed knows that.

I am thinking way too far into the future though.  Roger has one thing on the mind right now, and that is getting by David Ferrer, who is not one to take lightly (not that Roger ever takes anyone lightly, he is too professional).

Kyle.

Federer Fights Through Madrid Opener

Roger Federer fought off a tremendous challenge in his opening round from rising Canadian star Milos Raonic to win 46 75 76(4) in two hours and thirteen minutes.  It was Federer's first match in over a monh since he lost in the 3rd round of Miami to Andy Roddick.

The Canadian gave Roger a mighty test, as expected.  Both men held comfortably until 4-4 in the first set when Fed played a poor game and coughed up the break.  Raonic held to take the first set 6-4.  Throughout the entire set, Raonic did not give up a point when getting the first serve into play.  In the 2nd, it was more of the same until 6-5.  Fed had come through some tough holds, and it was the time to strike.  For the first time in the match, Roger was able to get a read on the Raonic serve and played his best tennis of the day, securing the break on his second chance to knot the match at a set apiece.  The 3rd set was also very even and ended up in a tiebreak, where Fed raised his level once again and won the match with a beautiful cross-court forehand winner past his tall opponent.

Federer was at the net 34 times, winning 19 of those points.

Overall, the match is what I expected.  It was a serve-dominated affair, and the games were filled with easy holds and short points, which did not give either player much rhythm from the back of the court.  For the first two sets, the Canadian's serve was unstoppable, and he won the first 44 points of the tournament when he got his first serve into play (amazing!).  Roger was struggling on the return and to a lesser extent on the ground, but Raonic was playing very well and he really gave it everything he had.  Fed had to put forth an amazing effort to pull through.

It's always nice to see Roger come through in tough matches.  I am of the belief that the more tight matches you win, the more confidence it gives you, and that can only be a good thing.  The length of the match will not be an issue heading forward - it was over two hours but the play was not physically demanding with many short points.  It was also interesting to see Roger serve and volley a lot throughout the match.  It nearly cost him at times when he did it too often and became predictable, but it was effective when he came into the net after hitting a high-kicking serve to the corner on the ad side.  Fed had this to say about that tactic:

 "I thought I could take it to him by serving and volleying and it worked a bit.  I definitely started to get a better read on his serve and to get into more baseline rallies, make him hit more shots on his own serve."

Roger now plays Richard Gasquet in the 3rd round.  He will be looking to gain revenge for the defeat he suffered in Rome last year.  In my view, the match will be easier for Fed than the Raonic one because he'll be able to attack the serve much easier and it will be a more traditional clay baseline game.

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To recap the rest of Round Deux:

-  Rafa Nadal was not tested at all against Nikolay Davydenko.  Historically, Niko has been able to give Rafa problems, but since this match was on clay, Davy really had little chance.
-  Novak Djokovic needed three sets to get by Daniel Gimeno-Traver.  It was a pretty bad match by Nole for his standards.  No doubt he will come back with a better effort in Round 3 though.
-  The biggest upset of the 2nd round was Marin Cilic knocking out John Isner.  The straight sets loss (two tiebreaks) won't be good for the big man's confidence as he heads into the French Open.
-  Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Tipsarevic, Almagro, del Potro, Monfils, Simon, and Verdasco all advanced to the 3rd round.  All won in straight sets with the exception of Tipsarevic, who needed two and a half hours to beat 131st ranked Argentinian Federico Delbonis.

There are many compelling 3rd round matches:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs Stan Wawrinka
(2) Rafael Nadal vs (15) Fernando Verdasco
(3) Roger Federer vs (14) Richard Gasquet
(4) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs (16) Alexandr Dolgopolov
(5) David Ferrer vs (11) Nicolas Almagro *
(6) Tomas Berdych vs (12) Gael Monfils
(7) Janko Tipsarevic vs (9) Gilles Simon
(10) Juan Martin del Potro vs Marin Cilic

(*:  My pick for Match of the Round)

Should be a great day of tennis!  I am very happy that Federer beat Raonic because I would be very disappointed if he was to be away for over a month and then lose in his first match back!

Kyle.

2012 Madrid Draw

Roger Federer has his work cut out for him at the 2012 Mutua Madrid Open, which will be played on blue clay for the first time ever.

Check out the draw here:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1536/mds.pdf

Roger has a very tough draw in his first clay event of the 2012 season.  He will either face old foe David Nalbandian or young rising Canadian star Milos Raonic in his opening match.  He will have practically no time at all to get into prime match shape as both are dangerous opponents.  Fed had to be at his best to get by Raonic in Indian Wells a few months ago and Nalbandian always poses a threat - he was Fed's hardest opponent before Nadal came along for a reason.  Raonic also beat Andy Murray in the Barcelona quarters last week and definitely does not mind playing on clay, even though he is a better hard court player.

Should Roger get by his tough opener, he should make it to the semifinals.  He's likely to get Richard Gasquet or Thomaz Bellucci in the 3rd round, whom, while tough players, are beatable if Roger is at his best.  I know Fed will want to avenge his clay defeat at Rome last year should he face Gasquet.  In the quarters, David Ferrer awaits.  David is a guy that always gives Roger a tough match but has never been able to get a victory against him.  He would give Roger a stern test, but again, if the Fed plays his best, I don't think Ferrer will be able to win.

Rafa has a simple draw, made even simpler by the fact that Andy Murray will not be playing.  He withdrew due to a back injury.  Nadal will get either Davydenko or Karlovic in his opening match.  Either one of them theoretically could pose a challenge but they will likely not.  Verdasco is the likely 3rd round opponent but Rafa pretty much owns him on clay.  Berdych or Monfils are set to play him in the quarters.  Overall, Berdych is the biggest challenge for Rafa until the semis where he will face Isner, del Potro, or the #4 seed, Tsonga, barring any upsets.

Djokovic also has an easy draw.  After a qualifier in his opener, he'll (likely) play Stan Wawrinka or Feliciano Lopez.  After that, Gilles Simon or countryman Janko Tipsarevic are his potential quarterfinal opponents.  It will be interesting to see what frame of mind Novak is in after the passing of his grandfather, and whether or not he will be affected at all by the beating he took from Nadal in Monte Carlo.  I personally hope he isn't because a Federer vs Djokovic match would be fun to watch.

Juan Martin del Potro is the dark horse in this tournament.  The clay and altitude suit his style of game and it would be absolutely lovely to see him get a win over Rafa in the semis.  My dream scenario is one where Roger beats Djokovic in the semis, then beats Delpo in the finals after the big Argentine takes out the Spaniard.  As of this writing, Delpo is in the final of Estoril against Gasquet, so he should be in great form looking to cause trouble for the top players.

Even though Federer has a very daunting draw, I am confident he can get through to the semis unscathed.  He usually does very well when faced with a tough draw, and recent evidence of this can be drawn from Indian Wells, where he had to go through Raonic, Bellucci, del Potro, Nadal, and Isner to win.  The Madrid clay has arguably been his best clay surface since 2009 and he definitely wants to get his clay season off on the right foot. 

The famous finger wag.

Here's hoping for a great tournament and hopefully in the end, title #4 of 2012 for Roger!  It will be difficult, but I have complete confidence in Roger's ability to come out on top in the end.  Tennis has been very dull to me since Roger lost to Roddick in Miami over a month ago, so with the Swiss Genius back, I am starting to get tennis fever again.  And just in time too, because I will be playing tennis again for the first time in 8 months next week.

Enjoy the tennis, blue clay style,

Kyle.