2011 US Open Preview

Well, the US Open, the final Grand Slam of the year, is here, starting today.  I am a bit late in previewing this draw of the top 4, but better late than never, and this is as late as I can go because I am going camping for a week today.

Roger Federer

The great Mr. Fed has been given a tough draw, starting with the potential meeting of Thomaz Bellucci in the 2nd round, who is a big hitting dangerous lefty.  Bernard Tomic, Marin Cilic, or Ryan Harrison in the 3rd round.  In the 4th round, Troicki, Stepanek, and Kohlscreiber come up as possible opponents.  And then, of course, the daunting quarterfinal that may feature a match with Tsonga or Fish.  And then if he gets by all that, Djokovic.  What a wonderful draw to be given.

However, in saying that, this draw isn't as bad as many are making it out to be.  Sure it will be difficult but that hardly phases Fed these days.  Throughout his entire career he has always risen to the occasion - my three memories of that being the Australian Open 2006, US Open 2008, and of course the magical French of 2009.  If you look at it logically, Roger should beat Bellucci in straights, and should beat Tomic, Cilic, or Harrison in three tough sets, if he is on his game.  A 4th round encounter with Troicki, Stepanek, or Kohl should only be worrisome if RF is not at his best, but even then he will probably still find a way to win.  In the quarters, a match with Fish would be far easier than Tsonga, but still tough nonetheless.  So you see, if Roger is playing well like he should, then he most certainly has the chance to meet Nole in the semis for a 4th straight year (that would be really ridiculous to be honest).  I'm hoping for the best and if Roger gets through I will be so dang happy.

Novak Djokovic

Nole has a pretty manageable draw, although you never know at this stage of great run this year when he might tire out and give a guy like Berdych, Monfils, Gasquet, or even Dolgopolov a ray of hope that they can beat him.  Last year Troicki should have beaten him and I could see a guy upsetting Nole too if it all matches up right.  Djoker is the top dog now and everybody wants to say they beat him. 

Rafael Nadal

Let's face it, Rafa has a sweet draw, as ALWAYS (damn ATP!), but with the way he has been playing this summer literally anything is possible.  There are many holes in his game right now and he can be exposed.  I really don't see him making it past the quarters, where he could either face Ferrer or Roddick.  Yes, Roddick.  Andy may be in the twilight of his pretty disappointing career (thanks to an elegant Swiss man), but this is New York and Andy always gets motivated for the US Open.  If Rafa isn't returning well and is moving slowly, Roddick, even now, could give him a match.  If John Freaking Isner could take a 2 sets to 1 lead in the 1st round of the French vs Nadal, surely Roddick can do the same, no?  Anyways, I don't expect a trip to the final 4 for Rafa.

Andy Murray

Murray could have some problems early on with Robin Haase and Feliciano Lopez, but I have come to expect little of opponents that should give Muzzhead problems.  They usually don't.  A 4th round match with Wawrinka would be the best match of the first week given the history they have from last year.  I for one want to see that.  A QF with big hitters Soderling, Isner, or Delpo would be fun, but hopefully he doesn't have to face Gilles the Pusher, which would be extremely boring to watch.  Overall, I expect Murray to make the final with the draw he has and with my prediction that Nadal won't make it to the semifinals to give Andy any headcases.

Well, there you go.  I finally got my preview written, and just in time for the US Open.  Now that Hurricane Irene has seemingly passed New York, let's have a great two weeks of tennis with some great matches and unbelievable shots (Roger, I'm looking at you).  I may or may not write again before the week is out, it will depend on my ability to access the internet while I'm off camping.  Anyways, enjoy the tennis!

Final prediction:  Roger Federer over Andy Murray in four sets.

Cincy Final Disappointment

The fans in Cincinnati were anticipating a wonderful final match between World #1 Novak Djokovic and World #4 Andy Murray on Sunday afternoon.  Unfortunately, they received a match cut short after Djokovic retired with a shoulder injury at 6-4, 3-0. You could see Novak was in considerable pain after the first set when he had his shoulder examined, and it was only a matter of time until Novak retired. 

Personally, it it a wise move with the US Open just over a week away, because the last thing he would want is to injure his shoulder even further and risk his chances of winning his 3rd Grand Slam of the year.  However, professionally, no matter how bad an injury is, unless it actually prevents you from playing, you continue until the match is over, ESPECIALLY in a final, where the fans pay the most money.  Even if it meant losing 6-4, 6-0 in one hour and 25 minutes (the match was one hour and 11 minutes), you tough it out and give the fans a full match, even if it isn't at all competitive. 

I would love to say that Djokovic getting injured comes as a complete surprise to me, but it really doesn't.  Novak has built his game the entire year upon taking huge swings at the ball, and sooner or later, that will take its toll on the shoulder.  Unfortunately for Djokovic, this injury is now coming a week before the US Open, which automatically now puts his condition heading into the event in question.  I'm sure he will be fine, however there will be the concern about the shoulder acting up in New York and costing him a match like it did today vs Murray.  Needless to say, we all want Novak to be at his very best in New York, so I hope he gets the proper treatment and goes into the US Open with no health concerns and ready to rock and roll.

Anyways, I hope Novak is ready for the US Open and that this shoulder injury isn't a big deal.

PS:  It is interesting to note that two of the top three players in the world are not healthy heading into the US Open.

Roger and Rafa lose in Cincy

What a day of tennis in Cincinnati.  First Rafael Nadal goes out 6-3, 6-4 vs Mardy Fish in to me wasn't really a shocking upset, and then right afterwards Roger Federer goes out to Tomas Berdych 6-2, 7-6(3).  Needless to say, both Federer and Nadal have their major concerns heading into the US Open, with Rafa struggling mentally and physically, and Roger struggling to change his game up when he needs to against certain opponents.

Fits, I will talk about Nadal.  This is about as poor as I have ever seen him play, and he is making his 2009 self look like the greatest player ever (post French Open 2009).  He is hitting most shots off the back foot, is moving very poorly, and is struggling mentally when he needs to rise his level of play.  When was the last time you saw Rafa hit only one winner through a set and three games of play?  It just doesn't happen unless something is seriously wrong, which there is right now.  He needs to be really concerned heading into the US Open because not only is he struggling in every department right now, he has a win to defend in New York.  He would lose so many points if he were to go out in the QFs or 4th round.  He and his team really need to dig down deep and find a way to make something out of the upcoming US Open.

Now, onto the disappointing result of the day, Roger's loss to Berdych.  Berd came out on fire in the first set, hammering every ball deep and flat, and pounding Roger's second serve which is usually very good.  There was really nothing Fed could do when Berdych is playing that well, because he hits the ball SO big.  In the second set Roger showed a better brand of tennis and at 5-5 in the set showed a lot of heart and clutch serving to hold after a ten minute power struggle.  I though Roger would take the set after that, but alas I was wrong.  Fed came out in the TB and mistimed seemingly every ball on his FH, which usually means he is trying to go for too much.  A poor tiebreak and generally a poor match, but if I was to take any positives out of the match it was his serving in the 2nd set and his heart in that 5-5 game.

However, Roger practically handed Berd the match with the way he was trying to play.  Fed must understand that he CANNOT overpower these young big hitters like Djokovic, Tsonga, Berdych, Soderling, and Del Potro.  He played a brilliant match vs Delpo by mixing up pace and spin, and keeping him off guard, but against Berdych he seemed to throw that book out the window.  To be fair there really isn't much chance to change things up when Tomas is hitting so big off both wings, but Roger could have sliced more and could have given Berd more junk right up the middle of the court.  I understand it must be hard to come to grips with the fact that you can't outhit these young guys anymore, but he must face facts.  He just can't keep giving these guys the same looks in rallies and the same pacey ball.  They feed off it and it helps them get into the zone, which if they do it is over.  I know that Federer's real game is hiding somewhere and he just needs to use it.  He is the most complete player of all-time and he MUST use his full arsenal to beat these big boys.  He did it vs Del Potro, who, while not at his best, was thrown way off guard by Roger's tactics, so why couldn't he do it vs Berdych?  It is frustrating as a fan seeing Rog try to overpower these guys when he can't.  Stubborn, maybe, and sometimes no matter what you try the bigger hitter will have the advantage, but he has to at least try to change things up.  Back in his prime he never hit the same shot twice.  Now he is feeding these big guys the same topspin ball over and over and it just doesn't work.

Anyways, I am a little worried about the US Open for Roger, but I do know that best of 5 set matches are a different ball game than best of 3 set matches, and that Roger generally ALWAYS brings his best for the slams.  I hope he can do it come US Open time, and I pray that he gets a favourable draw with nobody named Berdych, Tsonga, or Del Potro in his quarter.

Another tough match to go through today for us Federer fans, but stay positive and keep faith that the Maestro will show his true form when he needs it most.  I am of the belief that battles may be lost along the way, but the war will be won by the right person, and currently that says it all about Roger.  I hope he wins the war at Flushing Meadows in a few weeks time.

Cheers, and don't be too negative.  It will not help anything.

Cincinnati 2011 2R - Roger Federer vs Juan Martin del Potro - 6-3, 7-5

Wow, what can I say about this match?  Roger opened up on fire getting out to a quick 4-1 lead, and ended up winning the 1st set 6 games to 3.  The second set was much closer but Mr. Federer was serving as well as I have seen him serve all year long, so he never really had many problems holding (or even losing points on serve), with the exception of one break point in which he saved with a great body serve.  As Roger showed venomously throughout his prime, he played his best tennis when he needed to, breaking at 5-5 in the second to serve for the match, which he did fairly comfortably.  Bingo bango bongo Mr. Fedurah, 1 hours and 31 minutes, first serve percentage at 75 and of those first serves, 83 percent of those points he won.  Pretty amazing numbers vs a player as great as Del Potro is.

Now let me talk a little about why Roger won the match 6-3, 7-5.  It is fairly simple when you think about it in-depth.  Roger, instead of trying to cream every ball to Delpo, massaged the ball deep in the court and made the big Argentine quite uncomfortable where he usually feels safe.  He also sliced and chipped returns, and forced Delpo into the net quite often, where he is extremely uncomfortable.  To me, this was the Roger Federer we all know and love, where he shows his unmatched variety and guile.  When he is using every shot in his arsenal as well as serving well enough that half of his points won are unreturnable serves, then there is NOBODY IN THE WORLD who can stop him.  Nobody.  Not Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych, Davydenko, nobody.  The tennis he showcased vs Juan Martin is what he needs to do the rest of his career.  As the younger guys start to hit bigger and bigger, Roger must use his tactics to get them outside their comfort level.  He must outsmart them a let them know that even though he isn't pounding the ball, he is controlling the match.  Versus JMDP, he did this beautifully, and it gave him one of the best wins of the year in my opinion, falling just behind the Roland Garros semifinal and the final vs Davydenko in Doha.  Well done Roger!


JesusFed now plays old friend James Blake.  It should be a fun match that Roger takes easily if he plays even a fraction as well as he did vs Del Potro.  Then after that comes a potential Toronto 2010 rematch with Tomas Berdych, which would be interesting.  If GOAT-RF employs the same tactics he used to beat Del Potro and he serves well, he could take Tomas out easily.  But that is two rounds from now, so no getting ahead of myself yet.

As for the rest of the days' action, Isner lost to Stepanek which is obviously disappointing for him.  Stepanek is a crafty little player though and uses his serve effectively.  And after all, he did win in Washington two weeks ago, so he is on a roll.  Fabio Fognini lost to James Blake quite easily after he upset Viktor Troicki in round one.  A bit of a shock that Fabio beat Troicki, but James Blake is DANGEROUS when he plays well.  Unfortunately with his high-risk game that doesn't happen often anymore.  Shame, really.

Sometime soon I am going to write more in-depth about how to make life difficult for pace-eaters, or counterpunchers like Djokovic, Del Potro, and Nadal.  Cheers until then, and celebrate Roger's great play!

PS:  Roger owns revenge matches, yo.