The Key to Federer's Confidence

After picking up back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Dubai, Roger Federer looks like a much different man than the one we saw only one year ago, where he lost to Novak Djokovic in the Dubai final in straight sets - a convincing straight sets defeat, too.  From the Australian Open all the way to the US Open, Federer did not win a title, and had only made two finals - the aforementioned Dubai final and the French Open.  In large part, Roger did not look anywhere near like the assured, aggressive, dominating force that we had seen in his incredible prime.  There was a changing of the guard, with Novak Djokovic having a surreal year and Rafael Nadal being right there behind him, losing in six successive finals.  There were times when it looked like Mr. Federer would never get his mojo back again - that same mojo that helped him win a record 16 Grand Slam singles titles.  Then everything changed.

After his 5th title win in Dubai only a few days ago, Roger commented on the change that has taken place in his game in the last six months - a stretch where he has won 33 of 35 matches, 5 of 7 tournaments entered - and he currently holds a 16-2 record on the season:

"I think the six weeks I took off after Davis Cup and the US Open was necessary if I wanted to play that much and be that successful. So that was a good decision.  Obviously I'm still sad I didn't go Shanghai last year because it's such a wonderful tournament. In hindsight, maybe it was the right thing to do.  I think I was just confident. I was playing aggressive. I was focused. I didn't doubt my ability. I'm defending much better than maybe I was in the middle of last year where I felt like I couldn't come out of tough defensive positions anymore. I was able to sort of turn it around. It started midway through the French Open and then through Wimbledon, even though I ended up losing. But I felt like my game was very good.  Now just have to keep it up."

Pure concentration.

 It is very evident that since the US Open finished, Roger has been a rejuvenated player.  He is confident, he is aggressive, and most importantly, he is healthy.  It's easy to judge quickly and say that confidence and added aggression alone is the big difference between the Federer of the past six months and the Federer for all of 2011 before that.  But it is much more than that.  He touched on it in the interviews after winning the Dubai title - he is defending much better than he was last year.  That is the one big difference between now and then - his defensive abilities.  In both Rotterdam and Dubai we saw Roger battle and fight to win points that surely looked as though he would lose.  Whether it be a full-stretch backhand slice or an effortless forehand on the dead run, he found ways to keep himself in points long enough to turn them around.

Here's my theory:  After the US Open, Roger, Paul Annacone, and Severin Luthi sat down and analyzed Roger's game over the past few months where he, for the majority of the time, struggled.  They noticed that he was slower, not as sharp, and therefore not as confident in his own abilities.  So in the six week break (with the exception of the Davis Cup tie), Federer trained.  He trained hard.  He worked on his endurance, his stamina, his reflexes, his conditioning - all valuable factors in being a solid defensive player.  At the same time, the elongated break allowed him the opportunity to get fully healthy again - something I suspect he was not for the middle stretch of 2011.  When the break ended, and Roger was ready to play his first tournament back, in Basel, he was prepared.  He was confident.  He knew that he had put the pieces together and was ready to have a grand finish to the year. 

Now, that is just my speculation.  I know how hard Roger trains off the court, and I just have the feeling that he dedicated a lot of time on improving the one deficiency in his game that was truly holding him back for achieving greatness - his defense, and, tied together with it, his movement.

Now, some of you might be wondering why defense is such a big part of what makes Federer successful.  Do not underestimate its value.  In today's baseline game, there are going to be many mid-to-long length rallies, and you must be prepared to fight out some points - and some of those points may come at times in the match that are crucially important to the outcome - as we saw in the Davydenko match in Rotterdam and the del Potro 2nd set tiebreak in Dubai.  In both instances (2nd set at 3-3 0-15 in Rotterdam and 6-6 in the 2nd set tiebreak in Dubai), Roger won a grueling rally that pushed his physical limits.  But he came out the winner in those rallies, and he went on to win those matches. 

I believe that Federer's rejuvenated defensive abilities have led to this streak he has been on since the US Open.  Confidence rises after winning a point you probably should have lost.  It also gives you the belief that you can hang in rallies for 20 or 30 shots and know you will come out on the better side in the end.  In Federer's game, when he defends well, he attacks well.  He sets up points properly in only the masterful way he knows how.  He does not get impatient and go for the high-risk shot before its there.  It all stems from his knowledge that he can bring himself out of any difficult situation that is thrown his way. 

When Roger struggles, it is because he goes for too much, and unforced errors start piling up.  He tries to put away the point early because he is uncomfortable with a rally going too long where he might be exposed.  Since the end of the US Open, with improved movement and defense, he no longer has that issue.  He is able to be aggressive within his comfort zone - and if he gets into his comfort zone, there is really no stopping him.  Right now, he is fit, he is healthy, and even for 30 years old, he moves better than nearly everyone in today's game. 

With the way Roger plays his game, defense and movement are so important - more important than many people realize.  If he is struggling physically, he will not be able to play to his fullest capabilities.  We saw many times in 2010 and 2011 Roger being overpowered by bigger, stronger hitters.  The reason for that is because he could not utilize his silky smooth movement and defense to full effect and track down the balls he would have normally gotten to.  However, with his movement and defense clicking at highly elite levels, what have we seen in the past six months?  3 wins over Tsonga.  3 wins over del Potro.  A very dominating performance against Berdych in Paris.  All three men, at one point, were able to overpower Roger.  Not anymore. 

The Maestro, with his improved defense and movement, added with rejuvenated confidence and aggression, has had a physical and mental breakthrough that nobody would have thought possible 6 months ago after the US Open.  Credit must be placed where credit is due, and full credit to Roger for getting back to his very best in an assertive effort to eliminate the issues that were hampering him in 2011.

With much pleasure,

Kyle.

Federer wins Title #72

The one and only Roger Federer won his 72nd career title in the final of the Dubai Duty Free Championships, defeating Andy Murray 7-5 6-4 en route to his 5th Dubai title.  He was also the champion in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2007.  With his 2nd title win of the season so far, the Swiss Maestro has had his best start to a season since 2007.  He had not won two titles in the first two months of the season since then.

The final between Federer and Murray was eagerly anticipated and the crowd was hot.  The tension was there as well, as neither player gave the other any openings in the first few games of the match.  Keep in mind also that Federer and Murray had not met on court in over a year so there was definitely a feeling out process.  At 3-2 in the first, Murray held two break points on Federer's serve with the chance to take a stranglehold of the set.  However, he was unable to capitalize, and a few games later Roger earned the crucial break at 5-5.  He went onto hold to take the set 7-5.  In the second set, Federer got an early break to go up 3-1.  It would not last long though as a few poor decisions cost him a break - the first time his serve had been broken all week - and they were even again at 3-3.  The momentum was seemingly all with Murray and Fed would have to fight hard to take the second set.  Thankfully for him, he did.  At 4-4 he got the decisive break when Murray played a tight game and Roger took advantage.  He closed out the match in dramatic fashion, finishing with five straight inside out forehands (four at deuce, one on match point) to achieve victory in Dubai for the fifth time in the twenty year history of the event.

Tactically, Roger played a great match, which we all knew he would need to do.  He was striking the ball beautifully from the ground as he had been doing throughout the week, and he never let Murray dictate the play like the Scot was able to do against Djokovic the day before.  Murray was a tad too predictable in his strategy whereas Federer was at his varietal best, mixing spin, angle, slice, and pace in a magnificent harmony of the strings quartet.  Murray tried to attack the Federer backhand way too much, and Roger had it read most times.  He basically set up camp in the ad side and dared Andy to try to attack his forehand.  The Scot didn't do so, and Roger kept pouncing like a panther on short mid court balls that Murray was trying desperately to angle to Fed's backhand.  This was the exact same problem that Andy had in the Australian Open final in 2010, which is interesting, because I figured the match would play pretty similarly in terms of the tactics utilized by both men.

Overall, it was a superb week for Roger and he fully deserved to win the title.  He did not drop a set and was only broken once, to Murray in the final.  He now holds a 9-match winning streak, and has won five of the past seven tournaments he has entered, dating back to his US Open defeat to Djokovic last year.  He has won 35 of his past 37 matches and 40 of his past 43 if you count since the start of the US Open.  I don't care who you are, that is an incredible record to have over a six month period and Federer looks in imperious form as he heads into the all-important spring that leads up to the French Open and Wimbledon.  I am very excited about what the future holds for the Maestro.  Will he win a Masters 1000 title leading up to the French Open?  Will he surpass Rafael Nadal for the #2 ranking?  Can he go even further than that and regain his #1 ranking that will make him the leader for number of weeks at the #1 position?  Much of what the next few months may do to the rankings depends on Djokovic and Nadal and whether or not they can defend their many points until Wimbledon, but if Roger can win a Masters 1000 title and then claim the French Open or Wimbledon, then you never know.  Stranger things have happened.  Who would have thought that Nadal would lose his #1 ranking to Federer in 2009 after the Spaniard's Australian Open triumph?  Nothing is ever safe in tennis, and you never know what might happen.  All I know is that whatever does happen, Federer's recent run of imperious form makes the next few months very intriguing for the top 3.  May the Maestro continue to play his best!

Enjoy the win Federer fans.  It is certainly a very happy time right now, but let's hope it doesn't end here!  Fed has much more to accomplish in 2012, and I wish him all the best for the rest of the season!  May he so gloriously win many more titles on his continuing path of greatness!

Sincerely,

a VERY happy Kyle.

PS:  Beautiful boat trophy!

PS II:  The Dubai crowds were incredible all week long and their energy and excitement made watching the matches a very special experience!  The crowds were particularly fantastic in Fed's final two matches.  I can see why the players loving playing in the Dubai Duty Free Championships - it is a wonderfully organized event with supreme player accommodations and an excellent atmosphere.  I hope the tournament may flourish for the next twenty years and the next twenty after that.

Federer Into Dubai Final

The great Roger Federer has advanced to his second consecutive tournament final with a 76(5) 76(6) win over Juan Martin del Potro.  Federer now has 4 straight wins over del Potro and has won the past 9 sets.  It is Roger's seventh Dubai final in his illustrious career:  he won in 2003 (def. Jiri Novak), 2004 (def. Feliciano Lopez), 2005 (def. Ivan Ljubicic), and 2007 (def. Mikhail Youzhny).  His other two final appearances were in 2006 and 2011 when he lost to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

The match was very evenly contested with both men holding serve with relative ease.  Neither player was broken en route to two tiebreak sets.  In the first set tiebreaker, Federer went up 6-2 before del Potro pushed back to make it 6-5.  On Roger's final set point, he put away a forehand winner to take the set.  In the 2nd set tiebreaker, Roger quickly got down 5-0 after letting some points slip away.  He got the next two points on his own serve but Delpo won the next one to take a commanding 6-2 advantage.  One would normally think that there would be no possible way that Federer could win the set, but never say never in tennis.  Fed won the next three points to put himself in the same position that del Potro had in the first set; 6-5 down with the opponent to serve the final set point.  Del Potro could not save that final set point in the first set, but Roger could.  After the change of ends at 6-6, the best point of the tournament was played:  a highly dramatic, very intense 29-shot rally that had Federer pushed from side to side, hitting many pressured backhands until the big Argentine finally clipped the net with a backhand and the ball bounced back on his side.  Roger closed out the match on the next point to advance to the final.

Statistically speaking, it was yet another solid performance from Federer.  He served at 61% with 11 aces and 89% of points won off the first serve.  He had six break point opportunities in which he could not capitalize but that is a combination of his own faults and del Potro's stellar big point play.  The Maestro also won 62% of his second serves, a sign that he is also playing very well from the ground.  Throughout the entire week, Roger has been hitting his second serve very well, with great depth, placement, and variety.  Thanks to his efficient second ball, it allows him to win more free points than he usually would, and it gives him the confidence to hit the ball with authority off the ground as he is very seldom getting pushed back upon the return shooting back at him.  It is well-known in tennis that serving well is usually very important to winning matches, especially against the best players, and Fed has shown tremendous skill with his serve the entire week.  This bodes very well for him because when he is serving well, the rest of his game follows suit and he can open up his shoulders a little more freely.  Overall, it was a great, serve-dominated match with two fun, dramatic tiebreakers.  Coming back from 6-2 down in the 2nd set breaker to win six straight points should give Fed some great confidence heading into the final.  It was very reminiscent of the Wimbledon final in 2009 when Fed came back from 6-2 down as well to rack up six straight points and take that pivotal second set that could have conceivably won Andy Roddick the match.

In the first semifinal of the day, Novak Djokovic, the champion of the last three years in Dubai, lost to #3 seed and World #4 Andy Murray 62 75, in a rematch of their great Australian Open semifinal match a month ago.  The first four games were even, with both players trading holds, but then Murray reeled off four straight games to take the set 6-2.  Djokovic was not looking like his supreme self; he was shaky from the baseline and Murray was brilliant to take his time away.  The second set started with Andy roaring out to a 3-0 lead and the #1 player in the world looking unmotivated and unusually dejected.  After Nole got on the board at 3-1, the two men traded service holds until Murray was serving for the match at 5-3.  Then, Novak broke, and he finally showed some signs of life.  He got back to 5-5, but that is as far as he would get as he was broken at 5-6 to lose the set and thus the match.

 

On the scoreboard, 62 75 looks better than 62 63, which is what it should have been.  However, this was a very thorough victory from the Scot.  He played with aggression on the serve and from the back of the court.  He played the kind of tennis that is needed for him to break through at the Grand Slam level.  It was a masterful win and you have to credit Murray for coming through in such a big match after a devastating loss at the Australian Open to the same man.  After a very shaky start in the opening round, Murray has looked better and better with each passing match and looks to be in great form heading into the final against Federer.

So there you have it, the Dubai final, Roger Federer vs Andy Murray.  I would like to note that I predicted this final match-up, so I win!  The match should be very compelling.  Federer and Murray play very technical against one another, with Murray trying to attack the Federer backhand and Federer trying to attack the consistent Murray defense.  I have no doubt that we will see many cat-and-mouse exchanges as both guys will look to utilize drop shots, angles, slices, and any other form of shot making that will give them the edge.  It is worth noting that all 14 of their matches have been played on a hardcourt, which is absolutely amazing.  Murray has the 8-6 advantage in the head-to-head, but that is meaningless right now as they have not played since the end of 2010 in the World Tour Finals.  I will say, however, that many of Murray's victories have come with Federer not at his best;  Masters Cup 2008 when Fed had a back injury (and still nearly won), Indian Wells 2009 when Fed was in a confidence crisis, Toronto 2010 after a tough Wimbledon defeat and a tough week in Toronto, and Shanghai 2010 after the tough US Open loss to Djokovic, where he struggled mightily.  In the times when Federer has played well against Murray, he has won; the US Open 2008 final, the Cincinnati 2009 semifinal, the Australian Open 2010 final, and the World Tour Finals in 2009 and 2010.

For much of his career, Murray has been criticized for playing too defensively in the important matches against the top players.  This week in Dubai, however, Andy has made the attempt to play much more aggressively and it has paid off.  His serve is as good as ever and he is actually taking the initiative to attack and go after his shots in the rallies.  That mindset certainly helped him defeat Djokovic and he will need to do the same if he wants to walk away with the title.  For Federer, he has served magnificently all week long.  He has not been broken at all and has played his past three matches without facing a break point, and even more impressively, he hasn't even been to deuce in his past three wins.  Against Murray, who is a great returner, Roger will need to serve with the same ability that he has shown thus far, and that includes hitting great second serves.  Because Murray is such a great returner though, it would probably be in his best interests to have a high first serve percentage, and with the way he is serving he is certainly capable of that.  Overall, it should be a great final to cap off a great week in Dubai.  Both Federer and Murray are playing at a very high level which should make for some great tennis and some great points.  I give the edge to Federer because of the way he has been serving and backing up his serve with sharp baseline play.  He will need to return much better than he has all week, but I believe he can and will do so.  There is also the factor that Roger will be heading into the final coming off a hard-fought semi, and as we saw in Rotterdam two weeks ago, Fed does very well the match after a tough victory.  If he is sharp right from the word "go" in the final, as he was in the Rotterdam final, he will have an outstanding chance to win.

Enjoy the final!

Kyle.

Federer Into Dubai Semis

Roger Federer won his 7th straight match and improved his record to 14-2 on the 2012 season with a 63 64 victory over Mikhail Youzhny in the quarterfinals of the Dubai Duty Free Championships.  Federer now holds a 12-0 head-to-head record over the Russian. 

Roger never really had any trouble throughout the match.  He broke Youzhny's serve early in the first set to take a 4-1 lead, and then held out to win the set 6-3.  The second set was very much the same, with Fed breaking in the opening game and then riding out the set, and thus the match, on the strength of his service games.  Youzhny was inconsistent throughout the match, but Federer did not give him much to work with on the return as he was hitting his first and second serves equally well.  Roger's first serve was clicking at only 54%, but that was alright because he won a whopping 80% of his second serve points.  He also did not face a break point in the match, the second consecutive time that has happened.

 To fellow Federer fans I have talked to, one concern that they have had is that Federer is not returning well this week, or at least not returning as well as he was at the Australian Open or Rotterdam.  While that may be true, it is not harming him at all due to the fact that he is serving very well.  Not only that, he is backing up his serve with solid baseline play, and his 2nd serve is deceptive enough to also win him a fair share of free points off missed returns.  The one thing I have noticed in all three matches this week is that Fed has hit many nonreturnable serves, which allows him to breeze through his service games with ease.  Because of his ability to ease through his holds, he has more freedom to be looser on the return.  Of the times that he does get the opponent's serve into play, he is winning the majority of those points off the current strength of his all-round game.  In the quarters against Youzhny, particularly, Roger broke early in both sets, and after he did break, he did not feel the need to expend more energy to break again as he was confident in his ability to hold.  This is a good thing for the Maestro because when he has confidence on his serve everything falls into place.  This seems to be the status quo with Fed these days; in the early rounds of tournaments, he only does what he needs to do to win.  Dominating a match is not important to him if he is not feeling threatened by the ability of his opponent to make him feel uncomfortable.  This was largely the case against Llodra, Lopez, and now Youzhny.

In the other three matches on the day, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Juan Martin del Potro all advanced to the semifinals.  Murray dispatched of the #5 seed Tomas Berdych 63 75.  Murray never really had trouble and the Czech never put himself in a position to do any damage.  Murray has looked very solid since a shaky opening round match in which he needed to win 6-4 in the 3rd set.  Novak Djokovic overcame countryman Janko Tipsarevic 61 76(6).  The first set was completely dominated by Novak, but then in the 2nd Janko started to play much better and he was getting more and more confident with every passing hold.  In the tiebreak, he held a 4-1 advantage and then a set point, but could not convert, and Djokovic took the breaker and the match, eight points to six.  Juan Martin del Potro defeated #4 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 76(1) 62.  The first set was very even with the exception of the tiebreak, and then the big Argentine cruised from there.

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The two semifinal matches in Dubai are equally as intriguing.  Federer plays del Potro in a rematch of the Rotterdam final, and Djokovic plays Murray in a rematch of their Australian Open semifinal last month.  Both matches could be won by either player.  Murray has looked sharp after his first round scare, and Djokovic has looked shaky at times in his past two matches.  However, Novak has the mental edge knowing that he defeated Murray last month under very challenging circumstances.  Take your pick.  In the other semi, both Fed and Delpo have been playing great all week, neither dropping a set en route to this point in the draw.  Del Potro has plenty of confidence after his title win in Marseille last week, but so does Roger after his title win in Rotterdam, where of course he beat the Argentine.  Whether or not that plays any effect into the upcoming match will have to be seen once play gets underway.  The ball will bounce higher in Dubai than they did in Rotterdam, with it being an outdoor court, which means that more balls will be going into Delpo's strike zone.  Federer must be careful to avoid this by using all the variety that he used in the Rotterdam win.  He also must serve well, as he has done all week, and will probably need to return much better as Delpo is much more capable of backing up his serve with a great baseline game, unlike Llodra, Lopez, and Youzhny.  The return is important because Roger can avoid getting pushed around the court if he can immediately get the advantage in the point by hitting a solid, deep return.

I look forward to the great day of Dubai semifinal action ahead!

Enjoy the tennis,

Kyle.