RF fights to IW QF

On Wednesday, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer advanced to the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.  Juan Martin del Potro, John Isner, Nicolas Almagro, Gilles Simon, and David Nalbandian also went through.

Roger Federer had a quick turnaround from his late night match against Milos Raonic on Tuesday, and he faced Brazilian left-hander Thomaz Bellucci.  The lack of rest clearly showed early on from the Swiss Maestro, as he was broken early and then broken again to lose the first set 6-3.  Feeling a sense of urgency, Fed broke in the first game of the second set, just as he did against Raonic.  He started playing much better and he started to resemble the greatest player to ever play the game.  He broke again in the final game of the set to wrap it up 6-3.  In the third set it was even, much like the third set against Raonic.  Both men were holding serve until 4-4 when Fed got down 0-30.  The next few points would decide the fate of the match.  Roger came u with the goods and hit four unreturnable serves to quickly find his way out of trouble.  The next game, he won the match on his second match point to win his second comeback match in as many days.

Overall, it was a very good win for Roger, and it paralleled his semifinal win against Davydenko in Rotterdam.  He played poorly in the first set, but rebounded very nicely in the second and third sets.  Also like the Davydenko match, he was on the brink of defeat at 4-4 in the 3rd set when he was down 0-30 (he was down 0-40 vs Davydenko).  That Federer has come back from potential match-losing situations twice this year is a very good sign and it shows that he is very confident in his own abilities right now.  I hope that is highlighted the rest of the tournament in Indian Wells as Roger looks to capture his 3rd title here.

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World #1 Novak Djokovic needed three sets to beat clean-hitting Spaniard Pablo Andujar 60 67(5) 62.  Although the two sets that Djokovic won were 6-0 and 6-2 sets, I can't help but feel that he is not playing at his very best.  He was getting pushed around by Andujar from the back of the court many times throughout the match and really needed to bring his best tennis to the table to get by the 45th ranked Spaniard.  Rafael Nadal breezed through Alexandr Dolgopolov 63 62 and faced no real trouble whatsoever.  Del Potro needed three sets to overcome Denis Istomin 76(2) 67(6) 62, and John Isner and Gilles Simon came through as they should against Matthew Ebden and Ryan Harrison.  The young American was down a set and a break but came back to win the second set, and he couldn't hold it as the 13th ranked Frenchman took him out easily in the third set.  There were two upsets on the day, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych were both eliminated.  Tsonga was playing David Nalbandian and was serving for the match and was two points from victory but could not close out the match, and it cost him dearly.  He lost 36 75 63.  Tomas Berdych was demolished by Nicolas Almagro 64 60.  Almagro was surely fired up after their controversial match at the Australian Open, and he played the match with guns blazing at high velocity.

The quarterfinal matches are as follows:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs (12) Nicolas Almagro
(2) Rafael Nadal vs David Nalbandian
(3) Roger Federer vs (9) Juan Martin del Potro (what else is new?)
(11) John Isner vs (13) Gilles Simon

-  Djokovic vs Almagro and Isner vs Simon take place on Thursday, while Federer and Nadal play on Friday.  Almagro has played very good tennis lately and has the firepower to give Djokovic some big problems.  Whether he can play as well as he did against Tomas Berdych remains to be seen, but I expect a close match with the Spaniard bringing the fight to the World #1.
-  Rafael Nadal was given a big break (what else is new?) when Tsonga went out, and he gets Nalbandian.  The Argentine has had success against Nadal before, but don't expect much of a close match with the way Nadal has been playing.
-  Roger is already 3-0 against Delpo this year and this will be the fourth time in four successive tournaments that they will meet.  Unlike the other three matches, however, I believe del Potro will have a really great to chance to beat Roger with the Swiss Genius having the flu and not always looking his sharpest.  You also have to wonder whether a likely semi meeting with Rafa will weigh on Fed's mind at all.
-  Isner vs Simon is a straight toss up.  Simon may not have the big game to beat Isner, but he is a very good returner and he is consistent, and he will have his chances.  Take your pick.

I'll be back on Friday with a recap of all the quarterfinal action.

Until then,

Kyle.

2012 IW R3 Recap

3rd round action at the BNP Paribas Open was completed on Tuesday, with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro and Alexandr Dolgopolov advancing to the Round of 16.  There were two upsets as David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic were eliminated.  Ferrer was suffering from an illness.

The most anticipated match of the 3rd round was the final match of the 3rd round.  The great Roger Federer faced the big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic.  The crowd was buzzing right from the start and it was evident the players were locked in right from the start.  In the first 12 games of the match, there was literally nothing separating Federer and Raonic.  Both were holding serve with exceptional ease, and Roger could not even get many serves into play with how well the Canadian was hitting his biggest weapon.  Expectedly, the match went to a tiebreak, where both men held their service points until 4-3 Raonic when he gained the mini-break.  That was all he needed, and he served out the set to win the tiebreak 7-4.  Was it upset time?  Federer could barely get a return into play and would have to break the serve if he wanted to win.

The second set started with a bang, as Federer displayed some elite tennis to break Raonic's serve right away.  The tide had turned, and the Canadian was struggling to get his first serve in play.  Roger went on to capture the security break to go up 5-1, and went on to win the set 6-2.  The question after the set was whether or not Raonic could reset himself and raise his level of play to where it had been in the 1st set, and after Fed left the court for a toilet break, play began again.

The decisive 3rd set was very even, much like the 1st set, until 3-3 when the Swiss Maestro gained the crucial break with a devastating backhand pass.  Raonic hit a 136 mph serve out wide on the ad court, and Fed blocked it back like only he can.  The ball landed just over the net, drawing the Canadian forward, and when he hit it cross to Roger's backhand, the Swiss whipped it up the line and followed with an encouraging yell.  It was the only break that he needed in the 3rd set, and he went onto win the set 6-4.

Picture credit: Reuters/Danny Moloshok

Both Federer and Raonic played exceptionally well and gave the crowd at Indian Wells a match they will never forget.  The serving was elite, the big points were played well, and it was a very fun match to watch.  The way both men were holding serve was reminiscent of a past day when courts were faster and much more emphasis was placed on finesse rather than power.  Federer was in superb form and even though he lost the opening set, it was really one point that decided it.  Raonic should not be disappointed, because he pushed the greatest player ever to his very best and brought the greatness out of him.  The big difference in the match was the percentage of first serve points won.  Federer won 88% of first serves and Raonic only 76%.  That stat highlights how brilliantly Roger was returning because Raonic only lost one point (maybe two) in the first set when he got his first serve into play.  Another key stat is that Fed won 3/4 break points, and in this tournament, has converted on 8 of 10 break point chances, a simply outstanding number.

Rafael Nadal had a simple match against countryman Marcel Granollers, winning 61 64.  The first set was a total walk in the park, but Rafa was tested a little in the second set which is good to see.  Juan Martin del Potro saved six set points to beat Fernando Verdasco 62 76(6).  Verdasco held four set points and 4-5 and then two more in the tiebreak at 6-4 but he could not capitalize thanks to some slutch ply by the big Argentine.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came back from a set down to beat Radek Stepanek 67(2) 63 62.  The always unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov defeated Marcos Baghdatis 64 57 64 in over two hours of highly competitive tennis.  As previously mentioned, David Ferrer was upset by Denis Istomin 64 63.  The Spaniard was suffering from the illness going around the grounds, but I suspect playing clay court events after the Australian Open did not help matters either.  The transition is not easy to make.  #10 seed Janko Tipsarevic was taken out by David Nalbandian 63 36 63.  Nalbandian is always a dangerous player because of his elite returning and ball-striking ability.

Match of the Day:  Federer vs Raonic

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Monday at Indian Wells featured the top half round 3 action, featuring Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Mardy Fish, 3 of the top 10 players in the world.  Djokovic overcame South African Kevin Anderson 63 62 in well over an hour.  Despite the scoreline, Djokovic was tested in nearly every game as the big Anderson was pummeling the ball, and the #1 had to be at his sharpest.  For the most part, he was.  He did not drop serve and saved multiple break points.  In the night match, Tomas Berdych overcame crowd favourite Andy Roddick 63 46 62.  The Czech played a very good match against an inspired Roddick.  Andy, to me at least, seemed to be hitting the ball flatter and more aggressively, which is a great sign for his game.  I wish him the best the rest of the year.  Mardy Fish, who has been struggling so far this year, struggled even more when he lost to 24 year-old Australian Matthew Ebden 63 64.  There was some controversy at the end of the match when Fish was serving at 4-4 deuce and he yelled out "come on" after he hit a volley, but he did so before Ebden made his play on the ball.  The umpire was forced to call a hindrance, so Ebden won the point and then broke.  He then served out the match.  Fish did not shake the umpire's hand.

In other action on the day, John Isner fought through a close match with Juan Monaco 75 75.  Gilles Simon beat Stan Wawrinka 64 64, and Ryan Harrison defeated the Murray-beater, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 75 64.  Nicolas Almagro came through a tough 3-setter over Santiago Giraldo 46 62 76(2), and Pablo Andujar gets the dreadul task of facing Novak Djokovic in round 3 after beating Albert Ramos in straights.

Match of the Day:  Berdych vs Roddick

Here is the lineup for Wednesday's Round of 16 action:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs Pablo Andujar
(2) Rafael Nadal vs (21) Alexandr Dolgopolov
(3) Roger Federer vs Thomaz Bellucci
*Bellucci received a walkover after Davydenko withdrew due to illness
(6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs David Nalbandian
(7) Tomas Berdych vs (12) Nicolas Almagro
(9) Juan Martin del Potro vs Denis Istomin
(11) John Isner vs Matthew Ebden
(13) Gilles Simon vs Ryan Harrison

It should be a great day of tennis.  Federer should handle Bellucci easily, and on top of that, he will be great practice for a potential match with Nadal in the semis.  All the favourites should get by, but there are some interesting matches.  Dolgopolov is a very tricky opponent and he could give Rafa some trouble with his explosive game.  Then again, Dolgo will be tired after playing a long match against Baghdatis, and Rafa is as fresh as a daisy.  Tsonga could be pushed by Nalbandian who has played great tennis this week.  And finally, my most anticipated matchup, Berdych vs Almagro.  If you remember what happened at the Australian Open (where Berdych didn't shake Almagro's hand after getting hit with the ball), then you will be intrigued with this one.  Overall, should be a fun day as we trim 16 down to 8.

Cheers,

Kyle.

2012 IW R2 Recap

Round 2 action has been completed at the BNP Paribas Open, and there were many expected results, but also many seeds falling in their opening matches.

Roger Federer's Indian Wells campaign began on Sunday evening with a routine straight sets win over 19 year-old American Denis Kudla 64 61 in under an hour of play.  Right from the start, Federer was very casual, quickly getting out to a 4-1 lead thanks to a stretch of 14 straight points.  He was then broken however, but benefited from having the double break and won the set 6-4.  It was much of the same in the second set as he got out to a 4-0 lead and took the set 6-1.  It was a very simple match for the Swiss Maestro; as I have mentioned many times before, Fed never works up too much of a sweat in early round matches in which he is certain he will win.  This is especially the case today as he is older and must save energy for later in the tournaments when he plays his rivals in the top 10.  One big stat stood out for me, and that was his conversion rate of 5/6 on break point chances.  That will without a doubt serve him well (pun not intended) if he can convert like that as the tournament rolls on.  As for Denis Kudla, I liked what I saw out of him.  He is only 19 and he has a solid game that could develop very well as he progresses in his career.  I think he has a bright future.

Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin del Potro, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (retirement), and Janko Tipsarevic also advanced easily into the 3rd round.  Tsonga played five games before his opponent, Llodra, retired.  Verdasco, Dolgopolov, Raonic, Graonllers, Stepanek, and Davydenko also moved on to the 3rd round.  Davydenko was given the benefit of playing lucky loser Bjorn Phau after #14 seed Gael Monfils withdrew due to an illness.

SEEDS UPSET

Saturday featured a handful of upsets, including a massive shocker, when Andy Murray was defeated by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 64 62.  Coming off a solid week in Dubai where he defeated the World #1 Djokovic, this has to be a truly devastating blow.  The only good news that can be taken from this if you are Murray is that he also went out in the 2nd round last year, so he doesn't lose any points.  Andy must recover from this shocking turn of events very quickly or else he could suffer a serious slump just like he did last year when he lost four consecutive matches from the Australian Open to Miami.  Overall, six seeds were eliminated, including Murray.  Richard Gasquet (16), Kei Nishikori (17), Florian Mayer (18), Viktor Troicki (25), and Julien Benneteau (32) were also cut.  On Sunday, Feliciano Lopez (15) lost to Marcos Baghdatis, Marin Cilic (24) was defeated by David Nalbandian, Jurgen Melzer (20) was taken out by Thomaz Bellucci, and Juan Ignacio Chela (31) was perhaps unsurprisingly dismissed by Denis Istomin.

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#1 seed Novak Djokovic eased through qualifier Andrey Golubev 63 62, but it wasn't an entirely convincing performance.  It was an error-filled affair and Golubev practically handed the match over with his inconsistent play.  To me, Djokovic does not look like the same dominating player that he was in 2011.  He is just a little more cautious and not as risky, and his risk-taking ability was a huge part of his success in 2011.  Perhaps the massive weight of expectations is starting to catch up to him.  We will see.

Andy Roddick picked up a tremendous win over Poland's Lukasz Kubot 46 76(5) 63.  Andy was down 4-5 in the 2nd set, facing down defeat, and then everything turned around.  He started playing much better and started returning winners nearly every game.  It was a great win for the American and the crowd definitely appreciated his effort after crawling back from the brink of defeat.

Berdych, Fish, Isner, Almagro, Simon, Monaco, and Wawrinka also advanced to the 3rd round.

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The 3rd round matches are as follows:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs (29) Kevin Anderson
(2) Rafael Nadal vs (26) Marcel Granollers
(3) Roger Federer vs (27) Milos Raonic (match of the 3rd round)
(5) David Ferrer vs Denis Istomin
(6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs (28) Radek Stepanek
(7) Tomas Berdych vs (30) Andy Roddick
(8) Mardy Fish vs Matthew Ebden
(9) Juan Martin del Potro vs (29) Fernando Verdasco
(10) Janko Tipsarevic vs David Nalbandian
(11) John Isner vs (22) Juan Monaco
(12) Nicolas Almagro vs Santiago Giraldo
(13) Gilles Simon vs (23) Stan Wawrinka
(21) Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Marcos Baghdatis
Nikolay Davydenko vs Thomaz Bellucci
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Ryan Harrison
Pablo Andujar vs Albert Ramos

Federer will have a very tough match against the dangerous Canadian Milos Raonic but I expect he will play well and pull through.  Djokovic could have a tough time with Kevin Anderson who is on a roll.  I doubt Nadal will be given any trouble by his countryman Granollers.  Overall it is a great lineup of 3rd round action with Simon/Wawrinka, Tipsarevic/Nalbandian, Delpo/Verdasco, Dolgopolov/Baghdatis, and Berdych/Roddick all looking to be competitive matches.

Looking forward to all the action,

Kyle.

2012 Indian Wells Preview

The first Masters 1000 tournament of 2012, Indian Wells, is right around the corner, and there are many questions to be answered.  Can Roger Federer continue his incredible form and succeed in Indian Wells this time around?  Can Novak Djokovic defend his title from last year?  How will Rafael Nadal look, after having not played since the Australian Open?  All these questions and more will come into play as the tournament goes on.  But for now, I preview the draw of the 2012 BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California.

Check out the Indian Wells men's draw here.

TOP HALF

Djokovic's quarter:

Top seed Novak Djokovic has a very manageable draw.  His 2nd round match, as with the other three players in the top four, should be an easy one.  Then in the 3rd round he will most likely play big South African Kevin Anderson, who triumphed at Delray Beach last week after claiming defeats of Andy Roddick and John Isner along the way.  That could be a tough match for Djokovic, but I doubt it.  In the 4th round the Serb could play Florian Mayer or Richard Gasquet, both beatable.  The quarters is where it gets interesting for the World #1, where he might play Tomas Berdych.  That would be a difficult match but with Tomas being as inconsistent as he is, I truly cannot see Djokovic losing that one.  In the semis he will, on paper, play #4 seed Andy Murray, who took out Djokovic in Dubai last week.  I could see that one going either way in all honesty - the Indian Wells courts suit Djokovic really well but Murray may have a psychological advantage knowing he has taken 4 sets off Djokovic already this year.

Murray's quarter:

The Scot will very likely meet Djokovic's countryman Viktor Troicki in the 3rd round.  All signs point to Murray in that one but we should not forget the French Open last year where Andy came so close to losing to Troicki, where he was down two sets to none.  The 4th round contains a potential match with Stan Wawrinka or Gilles Simon, neither of which should trouble him (though should and would are two very different things).  If all goes to plan, a very enticing quarterfinal match awaits, either against big John Isner or Mardy Fish.  If he plays Mardy then I am sure he will win but Isner may not be as easy with his massive serve and the slow, high-bouncing court.  Should he make it to the semis, which looks likely, then as aforementioned we will see a rematch of the Australian Open and Dubai semifinals.

BOTTOM HALF

Federer's quarter:

After facing either Denis Kudla or Dmitry Tursunov in his opening match, Roger has a very difficult draw, at least on paper.  A much anticipated 3rd round match looms against Canadian Milos Raonic, and it would be the first time the pair has met.  If Fed can play as well as he has on his 9-match winning streak, he should win, but the Canadian is very dangerous.  Still however, I could see it playing out like Roger's match against Ryan Harrison last year - close, but the more experienced Fed gets it done in the end.  Moving on, in the 4th round, a likely match against Gael Monfils or Jurgen Melzer awaits.  Roger holds a combined 9-2 record against them both and if he is on, he should have no trouble dispatching either one.  The quarterfinals is where it gets really interesting, where the Swiss Maestro could play David Ferrer or yet again, Juan Martin del Potro.  The good news for Roger is that he holds a combined 22-2 record against both Ferrer and Delpo, but he must be careful, especially if he plays the Argentine, since the slower courts really suit his game.  Ferrer is a guy that will never truly challenge Fed because he doesn't have the weapons to do so, but David is on a roll this season, amassing a 18-1 record with two titles.  Another factor is that Ferrer and del Potro will likely meet in the 4th round, and they could very well beat each other up so much that it will leave the winner ripe for the Fed Express.  If  Fed gets by his first 4 matches, he has a potential meeting with Rafael Nadal, which would be their 28th pro meeting.  A match against Nadal is tough no matter where it is, but it will be for absolute certainty this time around with the slow playing conditions that favour Rafa's game.

Nadal's quarter:

As usual, Rafa has a pretty easy draw.  He will likely play lefty Alejandro Falla in the 2nd round and then Jarkko Nieminen in the 3rd.  Rafa loves playing left-handed players and those two matches would be a great way for him to get back into the ease of playing matches again.  Nieminen is far more likely to give him trouble than Falla, and he has some firepower, but don't expect him to challenge Rafa in any way.  In the 4th round, Rafa may meet, oh look, another lefty, Feliciano Lopez, whom Nadal has tremendous success against.  The quarters could potentially be his first real test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  That will be a tough match for Rafa and will push him to his limits with the big-hitting and serving ability of the Frenchman.

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Potential early round matches:

2nd round:

Roddick/Karlovic
Monfils/Davydenko
Cilic/Nalbandian
Tsonga/Llodra or Gulbis
Tipsarevic/Tomic
Baghdatis/Chardy

3rd round:

 Federer/Raonic
Almagro/Nishikori
Monfils/Melzer
Del Potro/Verdasco
Stepanek/Tsonga
Wawrinka/Simon
Dolgopolov/Lopez
Djokovic/Anderson
Berdych/Roddick
Mayer/Gasquet
Isner/Monaco

4th round:

 Federer/Monfils or Melzer
Del Potro/Ferrer
Tipsarevic/Tsonga
Djokovic/Gasquet
Murray/Wawrinka or Simon
Isner/Fish
Berdych or Roddick vs Almagro or Nishikori

I am on the fence on whether or not this will be a successful tournament for Roger.  He has not even made the final since 2006 (as with Miami) and the court surface definitely doesn't help matters.  However, with his improved defensive abilities, the slower courts could help also, and his baseline game could stay in riveting form and give him the chance to win the title on the final day.  It's tough to call what might happen.  I don't have winning expectations for Roger based on the results from the past five events at Indian Wells, but I do know that confidence is a magnificent beast, and when he is feeling good, the sky is the limit.  Right now, he is feeling VERY good, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a result for him that is different to last year, or the years before that.

Predictions:

Quarterfinals:

Djokovic vs Berdych - Djokovic
Murray vs Isner - Murray
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Federer vs del Potro (yet again!) - Federer
Nadal vs Tsonga - Tsonga

Semifinals:

Djokovic vs Murray - Murray
Federer vs Tsonga - Federer

Final:

Murray vs Federer

Winner:  Federer

Am I being a bit of a fan by choosing Fed to win?  Perhaps.  But I do know what Roger is capable of when confident, and even though the courts don't ideally suit him, he does say he enjoys playing on them, so take that for what it's worth.

"I've had some great finals, big matches, and I always enjoy playing at Indian Wells. The surface really suits my game, my slice stays low, the kick goes up and the ball travels quickly through the air."

He also said that the Dubai win was fantastic and that he didn't expect it.

"I didn't expect to win in Dubai to be quite honest, I had a lot on my plate with the Davis Cup and Rotterdam.  Dubai has always been the type of tournament where you play really well or not play well. It can be over really quickly.  The first couple rounds were big for me and I ended up playing a great semis and a great final and really well in difficult conditions. I came out of Dubai feeling better than I felt at the end of Rotterdam."

Take those quotes to mean whatever you think.  All I know is that the Maestro is himself again.

Hope to see a fantastic week of tennis in Indian Wells!

Kyle.