Rafael Nadal won his first title in nearly 11 months on Sunday, obliterating Novak Djokovic 63 61 in a lopsided affair. It was Rafa's 8th straight title at Monte Carlo, an Open Era record, and it gave him his first victory over Djokovic in his last 8 meetings.
It was a disappointing result after the previous 8 meetings between Nadal and Djokovic since the start of 2011, all of which were very competitive and entertaining. Rafa was at his supreme clay best, as he was the entire week, and Novak was clearly not playing well. In his defense, his grandfather had passed away earlier in the week and he missed the funeral, so there was a lot of emotional distress running through his veins as the final was being played. I'm sure he wanted to play his best for his grandfather and dedicate the match to him, but the stars did not line up. The signs were there though, as he battled through two tough matches against Dolgopolov and Berdych after hearing the news of his grandfather's passing.
Without a shadow of a doubt in my mind, Monte Carlo is the place where Rafa feels most comfortable, even more so than Roland Garros. Winning any tournament eight consecutive times is unheard of, and every clay title he picks up from here on out further asserts why he is the greatest clay court player to ever play tennis. It also seems that whatever kind of form he is in beforehand, whenever he steps on the clay he is a brand new player, a rejuvenated monster ready to track down every ball and dominate every player he sees standing across the net.
Looking forward, you have to wonder whether Nadal picking up a confidence-building win over Djokovic, a man that had taken a stranglehold on their rivalry, will only make Rafa stronger as he pushes to win his 7th French Open in June. I even wonder whether it was a mistake for Novak to enter Monte Carlo. Rafa is unbeatable there, and now the Serb might have just relinquished the edge he had over his foe. Nadal will be very hungry to reclaim his titles in Madrid and Rome, and until otherwise proven, you have to assume he will win every clay event. The only two players that can realistically beat him are Djokovic and Federer, and even then it will be a challenge if Nadal is at his very best. Although anything is possible. We saw Nadal dominate the clay swing until Madrid in 2009 and then the wheels fell off as he lost in the 4th round in the French.
As for other Monte Carlo business....
- Andy Murray went out disappointingly to Tomas Berdych. He loses points from his semifinal showing last year - where he lost to Nadal - and now he'll be pressed to defend semifinal points in Rome and Roland Garros (in Madrid, he lost to Thomaz Bellucci in the 3rd round). If Andy wants to get back the #3 spot, he'll have to be very sharp until Wimbledon. Personally, I cannot see it.
- David Ferrer lost surprisingly early to the aforementioned Bellucci in the 2nd round, dropping him to #6 in the rankings (he was a MC finalist last year). Jo-Wilfried Tsonga made the quarters where he lost to Gilles Simon, prompting him to overtake Ferrer.
- John Isner fell out of the top 10 just a few weeks after he broke through with his final performance in Indian Wells. Time to start the path back - he definitely can if he has a solid clay court season.
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Nadal, Murray, and Ferrer headline the field in Barcelona, where Rafa will look to win for the 7th time. David Ferrer has three runner-up finishes to Rafa in 2008, 2009, and 2011. Personally, I will be checking out from tennis until Madrid starts, where Roger plays. It is almost a lock that Rafa wins Barcelona, which makes it kind of pointless to watch.
The clay court season is my least favourite, but at least this year there is a new hope in the air with Federer playing so well since the Australian Open. Besides, taking Monte Carlo off should be good for him if what happened the last time he took a long break is any indication (finishing the 2011 season with a 17-match winning streak). I am almost positive we will see another Federer vs Nadal match in Madrid - they have met the past three years - and that would be interesting as it is being played on blue clay this year. The surface may be the same, but the colour change could give Roger some mental confidence, as if he was playing on a hardcourt. (OK, maybe that is just wishful thinking, but one has to try.) I would love to see Roger win in Rome, but I just have a feeling that that ship sailed in 2006 when he held match points against Nadal. He has not been the same there since.
Looking forward to a great clay season!
Kyle.
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