Wimbledon 2012 Draw Analysis

The Wimbledon draw was released on Friday.  Surprisingly, Roger Federer received a pretty good draw and Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray were dealt less than favourable hands.  Play starts on Monday.

Check out the draw here:   http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

Top Half (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer)

Novak Djokovic's Quarter

The reigning Wimbledon champion has his work cut out for him right from the very beginning, as he faces 2003 French Open champion Juan Carlos Ferrero in the first round.  Not the easiest of starts; Ferrero might be way past his prime, but he is still a great player and can give Novak some trouble if the Serb isn't up to par after a few weeks off since his loss in the French Open final.  In the second round, the #1 could play Ryan Harrison, which would also be an early round tester.  In the 3rd round, he is likely to face Radek Stepanek, who's serve-and-volley game suits the grass courts, especially in the first week when conditions are faster.  In the Round of 16, Juan Monaco is the top seed that awaits, and he shouldn't give Nole too much trouble, even though he is a very good player.  In the quarters, the Serb may meet Tomas Berdych or Nicolas Almagro.

Roger Federer's Quarter

The Swiss Master and 6-time Wimbledon champion will start his bid for his 17th major and ascension to the World #1 against Spaniard lefty Albert Ramos.  Should be straightforward enough, and Ramos is a lefty and it never hurts for Roger to get a feel for playing them before any potential meeting with Nadal.  Speaking of lefties, Roger could meet Michael Llodra in the second round if the veteran Frenchman can get by Fabio Fognini.  In the third round, Roger is likely to meet 29th seed Julien Benneteau, and in the fourth round, he might meet another Frenchman Gilles Simon or Fernando Verdasco.  Of the two, Roger would prefer Verdasco as Simon has been a thorn in his side ever since they first played against each other in Toronto 2008.  On a rare occasion, Roger has gotten a lesser evil in his quarterfinal, with big John Isner or Janko Tipsarevic being his likely opponents. 

Bottom Half (Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray)

Rafael Nadal's Quarter

For the first time in a long time, Rafa Nadal has gotten a tough draw!  He starts off against fellow lefty Thomaz Bellucci, a former #21 in the world.  The Brazilian has struggled lately however he is not a nobody.  Having said that, Rafa owns lefties so he'll likely win with the loss of only 4 games.  In the second round, the Bull will meet either Lukas Rosol or Ivan Dodig, who if you might remember, upset Rafa in Montreal last year.  (He also defeated Tsonga in Queens.)  The third round is where it gets interesting, where Rafa will likely face the man who bested him in Halle, Philipp Kohlschreiber, or the man that bested the man that bested him in Halle, Tommy Haas.  (Was that confusing for you?)  Both guys are great grass players and for Rafa to play either of them in the first week where the grass has not slowed down as much could pose a problem for the 11-time Grand Slam champion.  The fourth round will probably be easier with his opponents probably being Dolgopolov or Feliciano Lopez (whom Nadal owns at Grand Slam level, but does have a win on grass against him).  In the quarters his top seeds are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Mardy Fish.  Mardy is just recovering from an illness and Tsonga injured his finger in Queens, so his status remains to be seen - if he can play, will he be as good as he can be, and will he even make the quarters?

Andy Murray's Quarter

Andy Murray just cannot catch a break these days.  Bidding to win his first Grand Slam title, the Scot has the toughest draw of the top 4.  He faces former World #3 Nikolay Davydenko in the first round, followed by potential matches with Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round and Kevin Anderson in the 3rd round (Anderson beat Murray in Montreal last year).  In the 4th round he may meet none other than Milos Raonic, who seems to be the favourite in every tournament for upsetting one of the top guys, and for good reason (the guy got game!)  In the quarters, David Ferrer and Juan Martin del Potro await, both of whom can beat Andy if he has a bad day.

Verdict:  This is a good draw!

I like the way this draw has been set up.  After seemingly many years of Federer getting tough draws and Nadal getting easy ones, the tables have turned.  Murray, with his recent form, looks like he may not make it to the semis, and Djokovic, who's least decorated surface is grass, has some tests in the early rounds as he navigates the path to the semis.  Somehow, I feel Djokovic will have a mental letdown after that exhausting French Open. 

As simple as the draw appears for Roger, the bottom line is that he still has to go out there and play great tennis.  Benneteau has a win over Fed, as does Simon.  Even Llodra can be a very tricky opponent on grass with his aggressive nature and volleying ability.  John Isner is a dangerous opponent in the quarters even if he appears less intimidating than Tsonga, Berdych, or del Potro.

Nadal's quarter is dangerous because he may be playing guys that have beat him, and/or guys that are good on grass.  Dodig just beat a Top 10 player in Queens; Kohlschreiber just beat Nadal in Halle; Tommy Haas is full of confidence and is a superb grass player.  Dolgopolov is a mental nutcase sometimes, but a very talented mental nutcase.  I don't expect Nadal to get to the quarters as easily as he did at the French Open, and the funny thing is that he'll likely catch a break if Tsonga is unhealthy and goes out before the quarters.

All in all, it should be a great tournament, and I have full confidence that Roger can come out on top at the end of the fortnight and win his 17th major, 7th Wimbledon, and regain the #1 ranking.  (He'll automatically do it if he wins since he's in Novak's half.)  Fed has been marking this part of the year on his calendar for a very long time, and despite his recent troubles since Madrid, I feel like he will give everything he has got and play some sensational tennis along the way.  If the stars line up and Djokovic and/or Nadal falter, that could be all Roger needs.  Even f they don't, I have total belief that grass is the one surface where Roger has an edge over the top two (well, other than indoor hardcourt). And with the #1 on the line, something of which Roger has stated he wants again, I have no doubt the Swiss Maestro will open a can of beauty on the field and give it his best shot.

May the force be with him....

Kyle.