Welcome



This is my tennis blog, Lefty Advantage. Tennis is my biggest passion in life and I started this site to discuss the great game. I mainly follow the career of Roger Federer, but I truly love watching all tennis, whether it be the final of a Grand Slam
or a junior tournament on the other side of the world.

I have played tennis for 13 years. If you ever met me, I could talk your head off about all things tennis for hours on end if you would let me. Welcome, and enjoy the writing!

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Will The Stars Align For Federer?

The draw for the 2012 French Open came out on Friday, and unsurprisingly, Roger Federer was given a tough one while Rafael Nadal was basically given a cakewalk through to the final - unless a miracle shall strike down Paris.

Roger's start is easier than it was last year where he played Feliciano Lopez.  He takes on German Tobias Kamke, and I imagine it will be a scoreline of something like 63 62 63.  Next up is where it might get difficult, where he could (likely) play his former foe David Nalbandian.  The Argentine is a wiley veteran and cannot be taken lightly, but if Fed is playing well he should take it in 3 tough sets.  A 3rd round meeting with Andy Roddick may be in the books, but he must get through Nicolas Mahut in the 1st round.  Not an easy match for a guy that has struggled mightily almost all season long.  Whatever happens there, it should be very manageable for Roger to make it through to the Round of 16.  In said round, The Fed will likely play Radek Stepanek or Feliciano Lopez, both of whom are very beatable for an in-form Maestro.  The quarters is where it gets tricky though, with a potential match against Tomas Berdych or Juan Martin del Potro.  The Argentine would be the better option there.

Of the top four seeds, Federer certainly has the most daunting draw.  However, that may not be a bad thing.  Roger doesn't fear tough competition, and in fact, he actually looks forward to it I think.  He loves a challenge.  Last year at the French he had a tough draw and came through wonderfully, only dropping one set en route to the final.  We also saw the great play he displayed in Indian Wells and Mdarid where he also had draws on the tougher side of the spectrum.  I expect Roger to make the quarterfinals easily - adding to his streak - and then we'll see.  Berdych would be tough but he's played a lot of tennis lately.  Del Potro has a massive block against Fed now and I wouldn't see the big guy being much of a threat.

Could this happen again?  The odds say no, but you just never know.


In the end, whether or not Federer will pick up Slam #17 and his first in over 2 years will be what happens to Djokovic and Nadal.  Fed was drawn, once again, on Nole's half. (What else is new? They have been drawn on the same half in all 4 Slams in 2011, 3 in 2010, all 4 in 2009, and 3 in 2008.)  If he can get by Djokovic for the second straight year in the semis, then he will likely meet Rafa again in the final, which is of course Roger's toughest test in tennis.

The better scenario would be if Novak does go out before the semis and then Roger could get an easier match to save up some rest.  But that may not make any difference should a final with Rafa occur.  Speaking of Rafa, it looks like his hardest opponent before the final could be big serving Canadian Milos Raonic in the 4th round.  He's likely to play Tipsarevic in the quarters and then Murray or Ferrer in the semis.  Seeing as Andy has been completely off since the Australian Open, another clay court slugfest with Ferrer seems a lot more likely.

Should we see another Federer/Nadal final (which would be their 5th), the edge would obviously go to Rafa.  But, I have to say that Roger seems to play Nadal much smarter than he ever used to, and it has paid off.  The tactics he has utilized ever since Madrid last year have worked against him, if not all the time (when Roger abandoned them, ahem, Australian Open).  With Roger's improved mental stability in 2012, he could somehow find a way to take his chances, win the first set, and stick to the game plan.

Of course, that is looking way too far into the future, and that will be a topic to divulge further into when the final gets closer and we have a greater idea of who will be there.  As with any Slam, we can never truly count Roger out, even if he isn't a favourite to win any more over Nadal and Djokovic.  His experience coupled with his skill and hunger is a very powerful tool, and you just never know when it might be very advantageous for him.

Overall, it should be an enjoyable Slam.  I don't have winning expectations - that will be saved for Wimbledon and the US Open - but in tennis, unpredictability can rear its head at any time.  The stars may have to line up if Roger is going to win his 17th major title, but it happened before - in 2009 - if it can happen then, it can sure as hell happen now.  And with The Fedster feeling very comfortable on clay this year, as I have always said, you just never know.

1 comment:

  1.  i agree with you. and to ''
    stick to the game plan.'' it's the most important for roger.. let's see

    ReplyDelete