The Grand Slam quarterfinal streak had to end eventually. Today was that day as Roger Federer was stunned on Centre Court by Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky in a 67(5) 76(5) 76 76(5) loss in the 2nd round.
From the start of the match it was clear that Stakhovsky, ranked #116 in the world, had a clear gameplan - serve well and attack the net relentlessly. Throughout the match he never deviated from that attacking mindset and didn't get tight in the biggest points, the ones that ultimately won him the match in the end.
Could Federer have played better? Yes. Was he too passive? Yes. Did Stakhovsky play the big points better and with more confidence? Yes. However, it took a remarkable effort from the Ukrainian to pull off the upset - if he didn't play as great as he did, he would not have won, plain and simple. The better player won on the day, fair and square.
It was the kind of match where each set was determined by a few crucial points - and those points went the way of Stakhovsky more times than not. Stakhovsky came to net 94 times to Roger's 54, and there were few baseline rallies, especially when Fed was receiving. There were some uncharacteristic shanks off the ground from Roger, but it was the kind of match where he couldn't get into a rhythm from the baseline because so many points were decided by serves or volleys - and when your opponent advances to the forecourt 94 times, you aren't seeing many baseline exchanges and are being forced to hit pass after pass.
Tactically, Roger should have hit over more backhand returns. He chipped far too many back which set up easy volley winners from Stakhovsky - or when he stayed back, he could hit a nice approach shot. More times than not, when Roger did hit over his returns, good things happened as that forced an upward shot and a better chance at a pass.
Overall, I'm disappointed because the draw was shaping up nicely for him to get to the semifinals where he would likely play Murray, but it just goes to show that you can't take any opponent for granted. Any player is capable of winning on any given day. This sudden defeat also makes you realize how truly special making 36 straight quarterfinals in majors really is, when you can have one bad day or run into a hot opponent and it can be over in the snap of your fingers.
It isn't like he wasn't close in the last nine years to going out before the quarterfinals. To name off the close matches he could have lost in that time:
vs Tommy Haas, Australian Open 2006 4th round
vs Janko Tipsarevic, Australian Open 2008 3rd round
vs Igor Andreev, US Open 2008 4th round
vs Tomas Berdych, Australian Open 2009 4th round
vs Jose Acasuso and Tommy Haas, French Open 2009, 2nd and 4th rounds
vs Igor Andreev, Australian Open 2010 1st round
vs Alejandro Falla, Wimbledon 2010 1st round
vs Gilles Simon, Australian Open 2011 2nd round
vs Julien Benneteau and Xavier Malisse, Wimbledon 2012 3rd and 4th rounds
vs Gilles Simon, French Open 2013 4th round
That is a lot of times the QF streak could have come to an end. But he came through all of those matches and created one of the greatest streaks in sports history, one that will be incredibly difficult to break any time in the future.
Federer will fall to #5 in the rankings after the tournament ends unless Tomas Berdych wins the tournament, in which case he would fall to #6. Moving forward, being #4 or #5 probably doesn't make that big a difference because he is vulnerable against the likes of Berdych, Tsonga, and del Potro just as he is Nadal, Murray and Djokovic.
The chance for an 8th Wimbledon is gone for this year, and it is disappointing to see him lose so early in the tournament, but I have no doubt he will come back strong. Roger shrugs off defeats better than anyone and this kind of loss could be the kind of wake-up call he needs, similar to the US Open defeat to Djokovic in 2011. The summer hardcourt season is around the corner and I'm sure after a short break, Roger's focus will be solely on getting into great form for the US Open.
As for the rest of Wimbledon, you could say that Murray and Djokovic are locks to make the final, but after what happened to Nadal and now Federer, it really is true that anything can happen. Upsets are contagious. Top guys going out early spreads belief among the locker room that they can pull off that same shock.
It will take a few days for the shock of this defeat to wear off, but I still do believe better days are ahead. Even if it's just one last magical run, fans at least owe it to him to keep the faith that more glory will come, even if it means suffering through these low moments.
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