Roger Federer lost to Novak Djokovic in three sets for the second time in four days, as he fell in his first round robin match at the World Tour Finals 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-2 in a match that could not be called high-quality, but was still competitive and dramatic for the majority.
Both players started out in fine form and the first set was solid. The difference ended up being the 9th game, where Federer had a break point and hit a forehand winner just inches off the line. Djokovic held, and Fed played a loose game, and bam, the set was "finis."
The world #2 broke in the opening game of the second, but Fed broke right back after a very uncharacteristic game from the Serb. Federer would then break again and served for the set at 5-4, but was unfortunately broken. He had his chances but Djokovic played some great defense when he had to on the big points in that game. The set went to a tiebreak and Fed reeled off five straight points to take the match to a decider. In that final set, Novak broke in the opening game and split the match open with a double break, and just like in Paris, he rode off to the victory without too much trouble.
The most important point of the match probably ended up being that break point Federer had at 4-4 in the first set. So close yet so far from potentially serving out the first set, and if he did that, he could have won in straights. Credit to Djokovic though, he raised his game in the third and wore Federer down.
That's the big difference between Roger now and a few years ago - he can't seem to raise his level with the snap of his fingers like he used to. Back then, if he was struggling he would just say "enough's enough" and changed gears to the point that he could just pull away. He was so good that he could do that. Now, with his loss of power and speed, he can't.
He doesn't have the finishing power to end points early against elite defenders like Djokovic, if he tries to win a baseline battle against Nole, he won't come out looking good. A few years ago he could easily hang with Novak from the baseline, now he can't. He needs his serve to be working to have a chance and he must take the opportunities on return when they come.
That's the other problem when it comes to facing Djokovic now. You give that man enough looks at a 2nd serve and he will hurt you dearly. Of course, he is also the best first serve returner in the world, but even now when Roger is getting a lot of first serves in play, he'll hold a lot of the time against a high quality returner like that, just because Fed can still spread the service box as well as anyone and keep returners off balance.
Even when he plays Del Potro, who is one of his toughest opponents these days, at least there is a specific gameplan that works very well in comparison to when he plays the Serb. Fed can outmaneuver the big guy from the baseline and obviously he's not anywhere near the defender Djokovic is. He can win more free points on his serve because he doesn't return as well.
When playing Nole, Fed is forced to go bigger than he feels comfortable with because of how hard it is to get the ball by him, and that's when the errors start piling up (Roger alluded to this in his press conference). Even if he isn't being barraged with attacks to his backhand, Djokovic defends so well that he can keep himself in points and eventually turn them around because his transition game is second to none.
The courts at the O2 Arena this year are a little slower, and that certainly makes matters worse in a match-up like this. Roger did a decent job of moving Novak around the court but he had a lot of trouble finishing the point. As I mentioned, Nole can just grind and grind until he forces an error from Fed, usually off the backhand side (or he gets a short ball and strikes).
Federer plays Richard Gasquet next, who lost to Del Potro in 3 sets. If Roger is on his game, he should win, but of course with Fed this year you never know. However, compared to Djokovic, he must see Gasquet as a big step down in quality. Roger won't have any problems getting past the Frenchman's average defending, can win more free points with his serve, and can take advantage of Richard's less than stellar serve to get into games and crank the pressure up. Needless to say it's a must win match if Roger wants a shot at getting past the group stage. I hope he brings his best.
Until Thursday (when Fed plays),
Kyle.
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