'12 AO F: Djokovic vs Nadal Preview

Here we are, the 2012 Australian Open Men's Final, between the #1 and #2 players in the world, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.  This will be the pair's third straight meeting in a major final.  Djokovic won all six of their matches last year, all in finals (two in Grand Slam finals), and this match could hold a lot of significance on the future of the game in the next few years.  A 3rd straight loss in a major final to the same man for Nadal could deplete his confidence, and for all we know, affect the way he will play the rest of the year.

Djokovic is looking for his third Australian Open title and Nadal is looking for his second.  This Slam has to be by far Djokovic's favourite tournament, due to his past history and the way the court plays that so favours his game.  Nadal can certainly beat Djokovic, and this will be their first meeting at the Australian Open, but I just cannot see Rafa winning.  Though he may be the fresher of the two, the mental block he suffered against Novak last year could very well be the difference.  Physical fitness should not really be an issue for Novak, I don't think.  At the US Open last year he clearly had the tougher match against Federer, while Nadal pretty much skated by Andy Murray.  In that match, Djokovic came out on fire and suffered no ill effects from the epic match he had against Federer.  Novak believes in himself so much now, and going into a final against Nadal, whom he knows he has beaten six successive times last year, he will be confident.

Alright, time to get down to some of the technical aspects of this compelling match.  So much of the Nadal/Djokovic match up has to do with what Novak can do against Rafa that Roger cannot.  Because Roger has a one-handed backhand, the heavy, spinning forehands of Nadal can neutralize his swift attacking game.  Against Djokovic however, the big looping forehands have no effect, because Djokovic is far more capable of easing them right back cross court to keep neutral in the rallies.  With his strong two-handed backhand, Novak can not only attack Rafa's backhand with a vicious down the line shot, but he can open up the court in ways Roger can only dream of by taking a high, heavy ball, and sending it back to the forehand corner, which constantly keeps Nadal on the run.  Throughout their six matches last year, Novak pushed Nadal behind the baseline with furious forehands and backhands to Nadal's backhand, and then when the time was right, he opened up the court, not giving Rafa any room, and also keeping him on the run.  He never went for a winner too early, and he just wore Rafa out and limited his ability to attack.  If Novak can control the baseline in this upcoming final, and move Nadal side to side the way he has done for the past year, he should win rather comfortably.  Another big advantage Djokovic has over Nadal that Federer does not is the return.  Novak has a powerful two-handed backhand return and he can consistently put Nadal on the defensive right away in a point.  Another big thing is that on the crucial 0-15, 15-30, and 30-40 points on Nadal's serve, which all take place on the ad side, the Spaniard cannot send a slice serve out wide to the backhand with the same efficiency as he does against Roger, because Novak has a much stronger return.  I bring this up because it was a huge part of why Djokovic dominated Nadal last year.  Unlike Roger, Novak could get those needed 0-30 and 15-40 advantages on Nadal's service games, which then allowed him to break a lot.  This was certainly the case in the US Open, where Nadal had no answer for Novak's impeccable returning on the big points.

Everything Roger tried to do in the semifinal against Nadal, Novak will be able to execute much, much better, and I think that will be the big difference in this match.  Because of his strong two-handed backhand, Novak understands that Nadal's one big weapon (heavy cross-court forehand) is not effective against him.  Rafa knows this, and yet he still never changed up his strategy in any of their meetings last year.  If he tries to employ his same predictable game, Novak will jump all over it and claim his 5th Grand Slam title, and 3rd straight.  If Nadal wants any chance of winning this match, he will need to hit his forehand down the line much more frequently and he will need to serve and return brilliantly.  He excelled at the latter two against Federer, but the big question is if Nadal can go out of his comfort zone and attack more.  It is the only way he can prevent Djokovic from pushing him behind the baseline, which will no doubt happen if Novak is able to open up the court with his furious cross-court backhands.

It should be another amazing, physical match, and I hope it can live up to the billing of a Grand Slam final.  As far as I'm concerned, this is a must-win match for Nadal.  Three straight major final losses to the same player will really rattle him and would only deplete his confidence even further in the big matches in the future.  Federer never lost seven straight matches to Nadal, and if Djokovic beats Nadal for that 7th straight time, I believe it would utterly destroy Rafa mentally.  It would force him to seriously question how he is going to recover if he loses.

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In the women's final, Victoria Azarenka put on a beautiful display of tennis to defeat Maria Sharapova 63 60 to win her first Grand Slam title, and capture the #1 ranking from Caroline Wozniacki.  It was an amazing match by Vika and she will definitely be a force in women's tennis as the #1 with her all-court attacking style.  Wozniacki could seriously learn a thing or two about how to win majors.  Unlike Caro, who plays very defensively and waits for an error, Azarenka took the match into her own hands by taking the ball early and flat and pounding it into the corners, making Sharapova run side to side.  It was really a great display of the way tennis should be played - aggressive, attacking, taking the ball early - and I hope that the more defensive women like Wozniacki take serious note and come back with a similar gameplan against the big names in the Grand Slams.  To me, it is clear that defense does not win majors in the women's game.

Hoping for a Djokovic win,

Kyle.