2012 Australian Open - Federer vs Nadal Preview

The day we have all been waiting for is here - Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal, #3 vs #2 in the world, in the semifinals of the Australian Open.  This will be their first semifinal match in a Grand Slam in nearly seven years - of course for many years after that they were both #1 and #2 in the world so that match could not happen.  It is a dream match for sponsors and it is definitely the one everyone had their eyes on when the draw came out before the play began.

Heading into this mega match, both Federer and Nadal have played very well, with the slight edge going to Federer.  Nadal has lost only one set (to Berdych) and Federer has not dropped a set in his first four matches (walkover in 2nd round).  Federer has only been broken three times as well, once in the first round, once in the fourth, and once in the quarters.  Nadal's serve has also been a weapon, and it seems to be coming around to the levels it was at in 2010 when he dominated.  For me, there are a few questions I am asking myself about Rafa.  My first concern is how the physical match against Berdych could affect him coming out of the gates, where Federer is a very fast starter and Nadal is not.  The match against Tomas was 4 hours and 16 minutes long, although like many other Nadal marathon matches, the time can be deceiving because he wastes so much time in between points.  But nevertheless, it was still a physical match and Nadal was forced to take part in many long rallies and was required to play his very best defense in order to fend off the big-hitting Czech.  Federer, on the other hand, had quite an easy time in his previous two matches against Bernard Tomic and Juan Martin del Potro and did not show any weaknesses in those matches.  Considering the hype Del Potro was getting about being able to challenge Roger, the Great Swiss surprised a lot of people with his thorough beatdown of the Argentine.  To conclude my thoughts, it will be interesting to see if Nadal's fatigue will come into play in the first set and a half, and whether or not that will have any serious outcome on the match.

Next up I want to do a comparison to Federer vs Nadal from the Australian Open final in 2009 and the semifinal match they are about to play.  There are numerous points to suggest that things might be very different this time around.  In early 2009, Federer had a back injury that hampered his movement and serve.  In the final, Federer served terribly, yet he still took the match to 5 sets.  In fact, he could have won the match in 4 sets because he had many chances to take the crucial 3rd set.  You also have to factor into the equation that Rafa was at his outstanding physical peak in early 2009.  He had just come off a marathon match against Fernando Verdasco and still had enough left in the tank to win the final.  Although he is still in great shape now, I don't believe he is quite the same with all the injuries since that match.  I also believe that the Australian Open 2009 featured Rafa's best tennis.  I have never seen him play the same since.  Anywho, back to this upcoming encounter:  this time around, Federer is healthy, confident, and motivated.  He just came off an absolute mauling of Nadal in the World Tour Finals a few months ago, so he knows he can beat his biggest rival.  In their Australian Open final, Federer still had the lingering memories of the Wimbledon 2008 final.  Not to mention that he also had extreme pressure as he was the heavy favourite heading into the match.  This time around, there is no pressure on Federer and I suspect he will come out and play his absolute best against his toughest foe.

When I review how Roger has played the past few matches, it makes me realize that this is as good a chance for Roger to beat Rafa as there ever was.  His serve and return have been outstanding.  He has been whipping his forehand and backhand as well as he did in his prime.  The back injury that forced him to withdraw in Doha looks like a non-issue, and in fact, he looks to be graciously floating around the court like he was 22.  But he is 30, and for him to still be moving that wonderfully is a testament to the man Roger Federer is.  Because of this elite movement around the court, Roger's defense has also been sharp as ever.  In the past two matches against Tomic and Delpo, The Fed returned some balls that he would have never returned when not at his physical best.  And it's not just that he returned some of these miraculous gets, but he did enough on them to keep himself in the rally and have a chance to take the offensive.  Federer transitions from defense to offense better than anyone who has ever played, and he is certainly flowing with confidence that he can win a point that is seemingly impossible.  And last but not least, Federer is as confident and motivated as ever, and this will only help him against his toughest opponent, Nadal.  There may even be some fire in Fed's belly about the remarks Nadal made before the tournament started.  Even though he may dumb it down for the press, I'm sure Fed did not take too kindly to what Rafa said about him.

I want to discuss the effects of Paul Annacone on Federer's game, specifically referring to the match-up against Nadal.  Ever since Paul came on board, he has attempted to get Fed more aggressive on the return.  In his prime he had sliced or chipped the ball back in play and worked his way into a point and eventually hit the back-breaking shot and win the point.  In later years, the players started to hit too big and Roger started getting bullied around the court, which made his game ineffective.  When Annacone came in, he enforced a mindset with the Swiss to use the return to immediately put pressure on the opponent and gain an advantage right away.  You saw Roger utilize his new-found aggressive returning style to great use at the end of 2011, and even in this tournament you have seen him step around the backhand many times to punish a 2nd serve.  Against Rafa, being aggressive on the return will be necessary because if Nadal is given the chance to dictate, he will move Roger side to side and get into an unbreakable rhythm off the ground.  So Roger must attack on the return when possible and nullify Nadal's attempts to dictate.

The return will be crucial in this match, but the one thing that is even more important is the serve, and specifically, one particular serve.  That would be the out-wide slice serve on the deuce side.  It was a very effective serve against Tomic and Del Potro, and against Nadal it can be even more effective because he is a left-hander.  In the World Tour Final matches in 2010 and 2011, Roger went to that serve nearly every point on the deuce court, and Rafa was only able to win a handful of points in each match when Roger hit that serve.  In this match, if Roger can effectively use that serve again, it could be the big difference.  For Nadal, that out-wide serve is the one shot that he cannot defend against, and it would enable Roger to win many cheap points.  The other big threat about that serve is that even if Rafa cheats over and guards against it, Roger can go up the middle and catch him off-guard.  It is a brilliant tactic against Nadal and I have no doubt that Annacone helped Roger realize that he can gain a big advantage by using it in pressure situations.  Sticking with the aim-it-at-Rafa's-backhand theme, if Roger can attack the backhand with not only his forehand but his down the line backhand (which has been perfect throughout the tournament for Roger), then he will be able to open up the court and set himself up for great success in the points.  Overall, if Roger can return aggressively, hit the out-wide serve effectively, and attack the Nadal backhand, he will give himself an excellent opportunity to win.  The way I see it, a lot of the mental block Fed has against Rafa has to do with the inability to figure out a compelling strategy to beat the Spaniard.  Now, thanks to Annacone, Roger has been given keen insight and it will without a doubt help him in this match if he can utilize all these tactics.

Prediction:  Federer in 4.  63 75 36 76(4)

Hope you enjoyed this preview.  I had a great time writing it.  Enjoy the match and I'll be back with a review after it's over!  I hope Roger wins, and am confident that he will.  He is looking as good as he has in years right now.

Kyle.