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This is my tennis blog, Lefty Advantage. Tennis is my biggest passion in life and I started this site to discuss the great game. I mainly follow the career of Roger Federer, but I truly love watching all tennis, whether it be the final of a Grand Slam
or a junior tournament on the other side of the world.

I have played tennis for 13 years. If you ever met me, I could talk your head off about all things tennis for hours on end if you would let me. Welcome, and enjoy the writing!

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

2012 Indian Wells Preview

The first Masters 1000 tournament of 2012, Indian Wells, is right around the corner, and there are many questions to be answered.  Can Roger Federer continue his incredible form and succeed in Indian Wells this time around?  Can Novak Djokovic defend his title from last year?  How will Rafael Nadal look, after having not played since the Australian Open?  All these questions and more will come into play as the tournament goes on.  But for now, I preview the draw of the 2012 BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California.

Check out the Indian Wells men's draw here.

TOP HALF

Djokovic's quarter:

Top seed Novak Djokovic has a very manageable draw.  His 2nd round match, as with the other three players in the top four, should be an easy one.  Then in the 3rd round he will most likely play big South African Kevin Anderson, who triumphed at Delray Beach last week after claiming defeats of Andy Roddick and John Isner along the way.  That could be a tough match for Djokovic, but I doubt it.  In the 4th round the Serb could play Florian Mayer or Richard Gasquet, both beatable.  The quarters is where it gets interesting for the World #1, where he might play Tomas Berdych.  That would be a difficult match but with Tomas being as inconsistent as he is, I truly cannot see Djokovic losing that one.  In the semis he will, on paper, play #4 seed Andy Murray, who took out Djokovic in Dubai last week.  I could see that one going either way in all honesty - the Indian Wells courts suit Djokovic really well but Murray may have a psychological advantage knowing he has taken 4 sets off Djokovic already this year.

Murray's quarter:

The Scot will very likely meet Djokovic's countryman Viktor Troicki in the 3rd round.  All signs point to Murray in that one but we should not forget the French Open last year where Andy came so close to losing to Troicki, where he was down two sets to none.  The 4th round contains a potential match with Stan Wawrinka or Gilles Simon, neither of which should trouble him (though should and would are two very different things).  If all goes to plan, a very enticing quarterfinal match awaits, either against big John Isner or Mardy Fish.  If he plays Mardy then I am sure he will win but Isner may not be as easy with his massive serve and the slow, high-bouncing court.  Should he make it to the semis, which looks likely, then as aforementioned we will see a rematch of the Australian Open and Dubai semifinals.

BOTTOM HALF

Federer's quarter:

After facing either Denis Kudla or Dmitry Tursunov in his opening match, Roger has a very difficult draw, at least on paper.  A much anticipated 3rd round match looms against Canadian Milos Raonic, and it would be the first time the pair has met.  If Fed can play as well as he has on his 9-match winning streak, he should win, but the Canadian is very dangerous.  Still however, I could see it playing out like Roger's match against Ryan Harrison last year - close, but the more experienced Fed gets it done in the end.  Moving on, in the 4th round, a likely match against Gael Monfils or Jurgen Melzer awaits.  Roger holds a combined 9-2 record against them both and if he is on, he should have no trouble dispatching either one.  The quarterfinals is where it gets really interesting, where the Swiss Maestro could play David Ferrer or yet again, Juan Martin del Potro.  The good news for Roger is that he holds a combined 22-2 record against both Ferrer and Delpo, but he must be careful, especially if he plays the Argentine, since the slower courts really suit his game.  Ferrer is a guy that will never truly challenge Fed because he doesn't have the weapons to do so, but David is on a roll this season, amassing a 18-1 record with two titles.  Another factor is that Ferrer and del Potro will likely meet in the 4th round, and they could very well beat each other up so much that it will leave the winner ripe for the Fed Express.  If  Fed gets by his first 4 matches, he has a potential meeting with Rafael Nadal, which would be their 28th pro meeting.  A match against Nadal is tough no matter where it is, but it will be for absolute certainty this time around with the slow playing conditions that favour Rafa's game.

Nadal's quarter:

As usual, Rafa has a pretty easy draw.  He will likely play lefty Alejandro Falla in the 2nd round and then Jarkko Nieminen in the 3rd.  Rafa loves playing left-handed players and those two matches would be a great way for him to get back into the ease of playing matches again.  Nieminen is far more likely to give him trouble than Falla, and he has some firepower, but don't expect him to challenge Rafa in any way.  In the 4th round, Rafa may meet, oh look, another lefty, Feliciano Lopez, whom Nadal has tremendous success against.  The quarters could potentially be his first real test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  That will be a tough match for Rafa and will push him to his limits with the big-hitting and serving ability of the Frenchman.

__________________________________________________________________

Potential early round matches:

2nd round:

Roddick/Karlovic
Monfils/Davydenko
Cilic/Nalbandian
Tsonga/Llodra or Gulbis
Tipsarevic/Tomic
Baghdatis/Chardy

3rd round:

 Federer/Raonic
Almagro/Nishikori
Monfils/Melzer
Del Potro/Verdasco
Stepanek/Tsonga
Wawrinka/Simon
Dolgopolov/Lopez
Djokovic/Anderson
Berdych/Roddick
Mayer/Gasquet
Isner/Monaco

4th round:

 Federer/Monfils or Melzer
Del Potro/Ferrer
Tipsarevic/Tsonga
Djokovic/Gasquet
Murray/Wawrinka or Simon
Isner/Fish
Berdych or Roddick vs Almagro or Nishikori

I am on the fence on whether or not this will be a successful tournament for Roger.  He has not even made the final since 2006 (as with Miami) and the court surface definitely doesn't help matters.  However, with his improved defensive abilities, the slower courts could help also, and his baseline game could stay in riveting form and give him the chance to win the title on the final day.  It's tough to call what might happen.  I don't have winning expectations for Roger based on the results from the past five events at Indian Wells, but I do know that confidence is a magnificent beast, and when he is feeling good, the sky is the limit.  Right now, he is feeling VERY good, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a result for him that is different to last year, or the years before that.

Predictions:

Quarterfinals:

Djokovic vs Berdych - Djokovic
Murray vs Isner - Murray
-
Federer vs del Potro (yet again!) - Federer
Nadal vs Tsonga - Tsonga

Semifinals:

Djokovic vs Murray - Murray
Federer vs Tsonga - Federer

Final:

Murray vs Federer

Winner:  Federer

Am I being a bit of a fan by choosing Fed to win?  Perhaps.  But I do know what Roger is capable of when confident, and even though the courts don't ideally suit him, he does say he enjoys playing on them, so take that for what it's worth.
"I've had some great finals, big matches, and I always enjoy playing at Indian Wells. The surface really suits my game, my slice stays low, the kick goes up and the ball travels quickly through the air."
He also said that the Dubai win was fantastic and that he didn't expect it.
"I didn't expect to win in Dubai to be quite honest, I had a lot on my plate with the Davis Cup and Rotterdam.  Dubai has always been the type of tournament where you play really well or not play well. It can be over really quickly.  The first couple rounds were big for me and I ended up playing a great semis and a great final and really well in difficult conditions. I came out of Dubai feeling better than I felt at the end of Rotterdam."

Take those quotes to mean whatever you think.  All I know is that the Maestro is himself again.

Hope to see a fantastic week of tennis in Indian Wells!

Kyle.

1 comment:

  1. Hey friends check out BNP paribas open schedule, order of play and draws here.. and you can find regular updates about scores etc here

    BNP Paribas Open 2012 Schedule

    ReplyDelete