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This is my tennis blog, Lefty Advantage. Tennis is my biggest passion in life and I started this site to discuss the great game. I mainly follow the career of Roger Federer, but I truly love watching all tennis, whether it be the final of a Grand Slam
or a junior tournament on the other side of the world.

I have played tennis for 13 years. If you ever met me, I could talk your head off about all things tennis for hours on end if you would let me. Welcome, and enjoy the writing!

Friday, August 24, 2012

2012 US Open Preview

The draw for the 2012 US Open was released on Thursday to much anticipation.  Roger Federer goes in as the #1 seed and Novak Djokovic as the #2 seed, so if they are to play at this tournament for the sixth consecutive year, it will need to be in the final.  Andy Murray was drawn into Federer's half, while the 4th seed, David Ferrer, was drawn into Djokovic's half.

The draw:

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf

Federer's Quarter:

The Great Swiss starts his bid for a 6th US Open title against American Donald Young.  The two have never met, but it should be a rather simple opening match for Roger provided he is on his game.  In the second round he'll take on Bjorn Phau or a qualifier, which should be another smooth match.  The third round is where it gets potentially tricky, with a possible match against Fernando Verdasco.

In the 4th round, either Gilles Simon or Mardy Fish await.  Both would be tough, but Fish more so considering his good hard court form as of late.  In the quarters, the highest seed he could meet is Tomas Berdych, but the Czech big man has struggled since Roland Garros, so he may not even make the quarters.  Nicolas Almagro is also a potential quarterfinal opponent.

Murray's Quarter:

Andy starts his campaign for Major #1 against Alex Bogomolov Jr.  Bogomolov has a win over Andy, from Miami last year, but in general, the Scot should have no trouble getting by.  In the second round he'll take on a qualifier or Ivan Dodig.

The third round is where Andy could hit a speed bump; he'll face one of Feliciano Lopez, Thomaz Bellucci, Pablo Andujar, or Robin Haase.  Haase, if you remember, took Andy to 5 sets last year at the US Open (Andy had to come back from two sets down).  In the 4th round, a clash with Milos Raonic is on the cards, and the Canadian already has a win over Andy this year, albeit on clay.  In the quarters,  the likeliest opponent is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  However, watch out for Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic.

Ferrer's Quarter:

David Ferrer is the top seed in this quarter, but really, there are a number of guys who could come through.  Ferrer has a tough opener with Kevin Anderson, but if he gets by that, he should at least be able to make it to the Round of 16.  The dark horse in this quarter is John Isner, who has a good draw to get through to the quarters.  Also watch out for Richard Gasquet, who made the final in Toronto a few weeks ago.

Djokovic's Quarter:

The #2 ranked Serb has by far the easiest draw.  In the first round he takes on Paolo Lorenzi, and in the second round he'll play Rogerio Dutra Silva (who?) or a qualifier.  I'd be shocked if Novak loses 10 games combined in those two matches.  In the 3rd round, it could get a little trickier with a potential match against Julien Benneteau, but that's doubtful (that it could be trickier, I mean).

The 4th round is where it gets a little interesting, with Stan Wawrinka, Marcos Baghdatis, or Alexandr Dolgopolov there as likely opponents.  Wawrinka is coming off a great week in Cincinnati, and theoretically could do some damage with his big serve and groundstrokes.  In the quarters, the highest seed is Juan Martin del Potro, who has struggled with a wrist injury the past few weeks, but will hopefully be ready to go.

My Thoughts:

Is Federer's draw tricky overall, or will it only get difficult if he meets Andy Murray in the semifinals?  If Roger plays the way he's capable of playing, I can't see him losing a set in his first three matches.  In the Round of 16, he could be tested by Simon or Fish, but they will have to go through each other first before they meet Fed.  The same thing happened last year with Fish and Tsonga, where Jo prevailed in 5 sets and then got demolished by Fed in the quarters.

The only two guys that have beaten Roger since 2004, Djokovic and del Potro, are in the other half.  With the great confidence and aggression he's playing with these days, I truly cannot see anyone beat Roger before the final.  In fact, I think it's pretty much between Fed and Djokovic at this point.

Andy Murray will probably pose the biggest threat to Federer's chances at making the final, assuming he even makes the semis.  He lost to Marin Cilic in 2009 and Wawrinka in 2010, and last year he went down two sets to Haase before coming back.  He could have a very tough road to the semis with tough matches in the 3rd, 4th, and quarterfinal rounds.  He looked pretty bad against Jeremy Chardy in Cincinnati, and he'll need to be sharp in all facets of his game if he wants to have any chance of beating Roger.

If I had to guess the quarters, they would be Federer/Almagro, Murray/Tsonga, Isner/Ferrer, and Djokovic/del Potro.  Though Tsonga and Delpo have had their injury woes lately, I believe they'll come back strong and go deep into the tournament.

It should be a fun tournament.  With the way Federer is playing right now, I really can't see anyone stopping him until the final, and it would be fitting if he gets another chance to beat Djokovic after the losses he suffered the past two years to his rival.  I say Fed picks up #18 in a 5-set win over Nole.

Kyle.

3 comments:

  1. Kyle,

    You might have meant to say that you can't see Fed losing a SET in his first three matches.

    I agree that Federer and Djokovic should be seen as a notch above Murray. I do think, however, that Murray should be taken seriously in a tournament where Federer has already won his 17th major (and might feel slightly less urgency) and Djokovic is dealing with the mental fatigue of trying to back up his 2011 with strong results. It should come down to Fed and Nole, but it's not automatic. We'll see.

    Good column as usual!

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  2. Nothing is ever automatic, of course. But the US Open is where Fed plays some of his best tennis, and I see this being no different. It'll take a lot to beat him before the final. He has handled pressure so well this year.

    I think if there is to be a semi with Andy, I'm happy it's at the US Open, where Fed's attacking game flourishes more than say, the Australian Open. And as for the Super Saturday/Final Sunday back-to-back, it may come down to who's the freshest and who has the quicker match, regardless of who is first or second up.

    Fed taking Toronto off will be a huge benefit to him I think while Djokovic has played 22 matches since Wimbledon. I doubt he'll burn out, but it might be a factor if he has a tough match or two before the semis/final.

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  3. On twitter, I was very critical of Federer! I thank you for clearing up my confusion! Roger DID get a fairly easy draw: an unreliable Berdych, Simon and Fish who aren't in scary form, and Murray. But if Murray makes it, he will be a scary threat for Roger. Djoker lucked out and I honestly believe he'll win. But the last major Rafa didn't show up at, Fed won! An Murray was the favorite to go to the final an got upset. That was Wimnledon 2009! I hope Fed caps off an unbelievable year!

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