Cincinnati Preview

The Cincinnati Masters is already underway, the second of the two major US Open preparation tournaments.  Roger Federer will be playing his first match on hard court since his Miami defeat to Andy Roddick back at the end of March.

Overall, it has been a successful season on the hard court so far for Roger, going 23-2 with 3 titles.  The rest of the season will be played on it, and after skipping Toronto to rest, he will look to come back strong and defend his place as #1 in the world, starting this week.

Let's look at the draw:

Federer's Quarter:

Fed starts his campaign for a 5th Cincinnati title by going up against Alex Bogomolov of Russia.  That should be straightforward for the Swiss, but it may take him a set to get his legs underneath him and adjusted for play on hard court.

In the 3rd round, he'll have a rematch of the Australian Open 4th round from earlier this year, where he gave Bernard Tomic a lesson. (It should be a fun match.)  In the quarterfinals, he will probably face Juan Monaco or Mardy Fish.  Mardy lost to Roger in the 2010 Cincinnati final, but it was a very close match.  The highest seed in his half David Ferrer.  The other is Tomas Berdych, but he has been in poor form since the French Open, and it may be doubtful that he makes it that far.  It's likely that we see a Federer vs Ferrer semi.

Djokovic's Quarter:

The Serb is riding a 5-match winning streak after losing three times since Wimbledon.  He won the Toronto title with relative ease and he'll look to keep riding that wave.  But he may also be tired after the Toronto week, which was interrupted by rain time and time again.

His opening round opponent is Andreas Seppi, who went up two sets to zero on Novak in the 4th round of Roland Garros.  In the 3rd round, Davydenko or Mayer awaits (I think he would rather see Davydenko).  In the quarters, it will likely be either Janko Tipsarevic, who lost to Nole in Toronto last week, or Marin Cilic, the #12 seed.  And in the semis, barring an upset, there is a meeting lined up with Andy Murray.

Murray's Quarter:

Andy comes off an emotional month of July, where he made the Wimbledon final and then won Olympic gold at home in London.  He withdrew from Toronto, so we shall all keep an eye on his well-being throughout this tournament.

His opening round features a match with Sam Querrey.  His next match would be against Jeremy Chardy or Denis Istomin, both dangerous power hitters on the fast Cincinnati hard courts.  In the quarters, the highest seed is Juan Martin del Potro, but Delpo will have to go through the in-form Tommy Haas and Hewitt/Troicki to make it there.

Ferrer's Quarter:

Ferrer has a tough opening round match against Stan Wawrinka.  Should he get by that one, he'll take on either James Blake or Kei Nishikori, and after that, a quarterfinal clash against Berdych, unless, as I mentioned previously, Berdych crashes out early.  It wouldn't surprise me. 
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It is very likely that we see the top four seeds make the semis, and quite frankly, I'll be shocked if Federer doesn't make the final.  His draw is that good, and as long as he stays focused, he should be fine.  Djokovic shouldn't have that much trouble either unless he is fatigued from the long week in Toronto.

Speaking of Toronto, it was a rough week for not only the players, but the tournament as well.  Federer, Nadal, and Ferrer weren't playing.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Delpo went out in the 2nd round (and Tsonga is missing Cincinnati thanks to a freak knee injury), and Murray withdrew after his opening round win.

Djokovic had a pretty routine (albeit tough) week, with having to fight time difference, jet-lag, and surface change in the span of four days.  It was a title that he needed to win, defending 1000 points, and he did what he had to do.  After struggling since his French Open loss to Nadal, getting back on his favourite surface is exactly what he needed.

By the way, Gasquet was a huge disappointment in that final.  He was doing well at the beginning but as soon as he got broken the wheels just fell off.  He stands so far back behind the baseline in general, but in that match it was like he thought he was playing on clay.  He was already going to struggle to beat Djokovic even on his best day, so why make it harder for yourself by backing up and letting Djokovic's consistent, attacking ball-striking shred you to pieces.

Gasquet has so much talent, but he really has no brains out there sometimes.

Any-who, here's hoping for a great week in Cincinnati!  There are only two top players missing this time around (Nadal and Tsonga), but there should be some amazing tennis.  The courts there are quick and they favour Federer's game, so I'm taking him to win the title over Djokovic in three tough sets.