Previewing Cincinnati 2011

So, Cincinnati is being played this week and after Federer was bounced out of Montreal in the 3rd round, it is obvious that Roger needs to gain some momentum heading into the US Open.  But is match play always necessary for Roger to do well at Slams?  3 years ago at the US Open in 2008 Roger had all of 3 matches, one in Toronto vs Gilles Simon, and two in Cincinnati vs Robby Ginepri and Ivo Karlovic.  The way I see it, playing matches are only helpful if it helps your game to peak at the right time.  In 2008, Roger only played 3 matches between Wimbledon and the US Open, but he was healthy, and even though his game was struggling, he was able to play at his very best in New York, winning his 13th major title.

This year, in 2011, Roger will most certainly want to win the tournament for a 3rd straight year, but more importantly, he wants to get some good matches in so he can work his way into top form.  For instance, struggling his way through to the semifinal or final probably wouldn't benefit him, but winning a few matches quite comfortably would most certainly help boost his confidence heading into the US Open.

As many of us know, when Roger is at his very best in New York, nobody beats him, and he is the most dangerous player on that fast hardcourt surface.  The warmup tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati, especially now in Federer's career, are stepping stones used to help him get into top form for the US Open.  This isn't always the case with the younger guys like Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic, who want to win every single match, but risk tiring themselves out in the process if they happen to face tough opponents who give them difficult matches.

However, in saying that, I'm not suggesting Roger never cared about Canada and Cincy in his prime between 2004 and 2007.  He was just so much better than everybody else that he could play well without expending energy and then really bring his best in New York when he really needed it.  This was evident in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.  In 2004, he won Toronto, in 2005 he won in Cincinnati, in 2006 he won in Toronto, and in 2007 he won in Cincinnati.  He never won both in the same year between '04 and '07 (didn't play in Montreal in 2005), and the closest he ever came to winning both was in 2007 when he lost to Novak Djokovic in the final.  Even though he wasn't great in every match throughout those summers, and came close to losing a few times (Toronto 2006 comes to mind), he took his good form out of those tournaments and helped it propel him to greater play in New York.  I have always said that Roger Federer is so good at playing well at any tournament even when he struggles previously because he is so positive and always has belief in himself and his abilities.  After all, why wouldn't he, being the most talented tennis player ever?  Unlike other players who may need to win to feel good about their game, Roger knows it is there and knows how to channel his best at the most important moments.  It is one reason why he held a Grand Slam semifinal streak of 23 between Wimbledon 2005 and Australia 2010 - he brings his best out when it matters most.  That takes a great amount of mental strength and confidence, something Roger does not lack at all.

Now, onto this week in Cincinnati:  Djokovic is certainly the favourite, but as I always say, never count Roger out.  The courts really suit his game as proven by his 4 titles in 6 years between 2005 and 2010.  It would not surprise me in the least if Roger came out firing and made the semifinals or finals (if he pulls a win vs Novak or Nole goes out early).  He has a tough match with Delpo in the 2nd round should he get by, but I believe a win over JMDP could skyrocket Roger's confidence and lead him to a superb week.  A 3rd round clash with old rival James Blake could be a fun match to watch, kind of like Federer vs Nalbandian at Wimbledon, and a quarterfinal clash with Berdych could be tough, but Tomas isn't anywhere near as good as he was in Toronto last year.  As for Nadal, with all the troubles he has had mentally and physically lately, I believe he will go out in the quarterfinals or earlier.  But this is Rafael Nadal, and that man has a fighting spirit like no other, so as with Roger, we shouldn't count him out.  Having said that, the easy draw doesn't mean anything because we saw what happened in Montreal when we thought Dodig would be do(di)g food for Nadal.  Andy Murray won't make any splash as he is so mentally unstable right now, and he has a tough draw with Tsonga in his quarter.  And after the success Mardy Fish had in Montreal, he could be another threat in Cincinnati.  Djokovic is definitely a lock to go the final and probably win if Roger doesn't have anything to say about it though.  Let us Fedfans hope that Roger pulls out his magic should they meet in the semifinals.

Overall, it should be a great week and I hope we see the very best of Roger Federer!

Prediction:  Roger Federer defeats Mardy Fish in the final

Cheers!