Every time Roger Federer and Andy Murray play against each other, it is like a game of cat and mouse, with both players trying to be the cat. Their encounters are heavily tactical, and it is almost always the one who is able to assert his game plan that ends up winning the match.
In the Wimbledon final, both Federer and Murray played high-level tennis, and the difference between victory and defeat was very small. Because of this, the tactics both men utilized, and their ability to use them to their greatest effect, played a critical part in the outcome of the match. Like momentum, tactics can change throughout a match, and in the first grass-court match played between the two, Federer managed to consistently employ his tactics, while Murray struggled at times to do so. That small margin gave the Swiss Maestro the opportunity to win, which he took in emphatic fashion.
The 3 Keys to Roger's victory:
1. Murray's serve
2. Federer's return
3. Federer's aggression and Murray's passive play
Murray's Serve
Andy Murray has a big serve - he can clock it up to 135 mph on certain occasions. When he uses the serve the right way, it is a very effective weapon, but when it has problems, it becomes a major issue in his game. A fine example of this was the final against Roger.
In the first set, Andy was having problems on his serve. After the first few games, he tried to serve bigger and flatter, and as a result, he gave Roger way too many 2nd serve looks. Fed was in every single one of Andy's service games in the opening set, and had the Swiss been more clutch, he may have taken it.
In the second set, Murray's serve was much more successful. It was a result of using variety with the serve - going big and flat, plus mixing in slice serves out wide and up the middle. It was important for Andy to get a large number of first serves in play (72% for the set) because he has a vulnerable second serve.
In the third set, the roof closed. This is where Andy started to abandon the tactics of his serve and it cost him in a big way. For the set, which he lost 6-3, he only put 49% of first serves into play. Why? Because he was attempting to hit big, flat serves with no margin for error. And when Andy does not get a good number of first serves in, he struggles. Federer capitalized on being given so many 2nd serve looks and jumped all over Murray, employing his all-court aggressive game.
In this all-important third set, the first serve was not working either. By this point, with the roof closed, Roger was in the zone, and even when Andy barreled a first serve at him, Fed just blocked it back deep and either gained an advantage in the rally or put himself on neutral ground where he could beat Murray from the baseline. Andy should have figured out that he needed to mix up the pace, but he did not - and he suffered dearly for it.
In the 3rd and 4th sets, Andy served at 49% and 45% respectively. This gave Federer, already at his most dangerous indoors where weather conditions don't factor in, a ridiculous amount of opportunities to attack right away off Murray's weak second serve. It also meant that Andy could not employ the same attacking style that gave him success in the first two sets.
Federer's Return
Murray was missing many first serves, but he would not have been as unsuccessful as he was on the second serve had Roger not been so willing to attack it. Specifically in the third and fourth sets when the roof was closed, Fed jumped around his backhand, knowing Andy was going to kick it out there, and crushed forehands to all parts of the court, immediately putting him on the offensive.
Variety is a staple of Federer's game, as we all know. He used that variety on the return to great effect in the final two sets. Along with jumping around backhands to smack forehands, Fed was alternating between slicing/chipping the return back, and coming over the backhand. All three plays worked for him, so he used all three to keep Andy on his toes. A few times Roger would also follow his backhand return (be it a topspin or chip/slice shot) into the net, to give Andy yet another possibility to think about. This is what makes Roger such a difficult opponent to play.
The marathon 20-minute, 26-point, 10-deuce game at 3-2 on Murray's serve was when Roger really found "the zone" on his return. From then on, Murray's 2nd serve was there to be attacked almost every time.
Federer's Aggression and Murray's Passive Play
When Murray plays Roger, he tries to break down Roger's backhand. In the first two sets, Andy was very successful in going big on his forehand to Roger's forehand. This was a good tactic because Fed knows Andy is going to go to his backhand most of the time. So when Murray stepped into a forehand and hit it big, it caught Roger off guard, which didn't allow him to find his comfort zone from the baseline.
In the final two sets of the match, when the roof was closed, Federer dialed up the aggression from the baseline. He benefited greatly from the drop in Andy's own aggression, but to be fair to him, Roger was putting him under tremendous pressure time and time again and forced Andy into being a defensive counter-puncher.
Murray tried to push and direct the ball to Federer's backhand the majority of the time in the final two sets. There were many instances where it would have been smarter to go up the line to Roger's forehand, but he decided not to. As a result, Roger, knowing what was happening, decided to step around his backhand every chance he got to unleash a forehand - and many times down the line to Murray's own forehand, which was a very smart play as Andy's legs wore down.
When Murray struggles against Roger (see: Dubai 2012, World Tour Finals 2010, and Australian Open 2010), it is a result of his passive play. Instead of taking the ball early and hammering away with his groundstrokes, he tries to hit a ball in Fed's backhand area and hopes that it will either force a short ball or a miss. The problem with this play is that Roger is too smart and too experienced to be fooled by it. Most of the time, Fed will just hammer a backhand right back to where it came from, and he'll hit it deep and with angle. In the final, Murray instead of being aggressive with his backhand, he tried to semi-push it back to Fed's backhand corner, and by then, Roger was already on his way to cracking a forehand, immediately putting Murray in trouble.
To be fair to Murray, Federer was moving awfully well to his forehand side in the last half of the match when the roof was closed. Roger was hitting forehands on the run with ease and flicked it simply (too simply) cross-court to either remain neutral or to put himself in an aggressive position.
Overall, Murray's game just does not match up well with Federer's over the course of a match. Andy, being the defensive-minded counter-puncher that he is, will eventually go back to his roots, and if Roger is on his game, which he was in the Wimbledon final, he gets into big trouble. There were stretches throughout the match where Andy was aggressive and took the first strike, but it did not come near often enough for him to put himself in a winning position.
The Federer vs Murray match-up has changed:
The head-to-head between Federer and Murray was at one time 6-2 for the Scot. It is now 8-8. Roger struggled with finding ways to beat Murray many years ago, and Andy took advantage of Roger's "worst days" in 2008 and 2009 to rack up wins against him. But ever since Cincinnati 2009, when Roger won in straight sets in the semifinal, it has been one-way traffic, with Fed winning 6 of the last 8 matches.
The bottom line is that Murray needs to be aggressive to beat Roger (as does mostly everyone), but the problem is that his natural tendencies are to defend and not go for the killer blow. So when Fed is on his game, attacking the net and hammering big, heavy groundstrokes consistently, Murray finds himself on the defensive way too much, and when Fed gets going, he is nearly impossible to stop.
As tennis fans, we should be happy that we were able to witness such an immaculate final. Both Murray and Federer brought their best games to their court on Sunday, and the result was a spectacular match full of wonderful tactical warfare and splendid clutch shotmaking from two of the best shotmakers in the game today.
Authors' Note: Even though this article highlighted the ways in which Roger won, let me be clear in saying that Murray played a great match as well, even in the last two sets. He was struggling in the second half because Fed was so dominant with his attacking, and the match was sort of taken out of his hands. Even though the match was slipping out of Andy's reach, and the hopes and dreams of his first Slam title, he fought like we hadn't seen before and made Roger earn the victory.
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