Federer vs Murray Preview

In the 2012 Wimbledon final, history will be on the line.  Either Andy Murray wins his very first Grand Slam and becomes the first Brit since 1936 to win one, or Roger Federer will win his 7th Wimbledon, 17th Grand Slam, and regain the #1 ranking to pass Pete Sampras' record of 286 weeks with the top spot.

This will be the first time that Federer and Murray have played off hard courts.  Murray will have an entire nation behind him, and with that, all the pressure of actually breaking through and winning his first Slam.  Federer will go into the match knowing that this could be his best chance to win another major title and add to his illustrious career.

My analysis:

Whenever Federer and Murray play, tactics come to the forefront as both men try to use their strengths against the others' weaknesses.  In this final, however, the biggest factor in the winner of the match is likely to be the mental strength of both players.  Murray has never been in the position that he is in - with a chance to win Wimbledon.  Will the pressure be too much for him to handle?  Federer will have pressure of his own, but since he has been in so many pressure situations over the last decade, he's much better equipped to handle the moment than Andy.  In order to win, Andy must keep his head and use the motivation of an entire nation to will him on.

Tactically, this is what Murray cannot do: he cannot mindlessly pepper away at the Federer backhand.  While it is true that many of Andy's wins against Roger have come because he has been able to break down the Federer backhand, it is also true that many of his losses have been a cause of his stubbornness to abandon a tactic that is not working.  For example:  In the Dubai final that they played earlier in the year, Andy hit to Roger's backhand nearly every time.  Roger's one-hander was sharp that day, and he kept blasting the ball with spin and angle back to Andy's two-hander.  It came to the point where Andy was forcing short balls cross-court in hope that Roger would miss, but that only allowed Fed to step around and crush forehands, which he absolutely loves doing.

While it may be cruel to say, when Fed's backhand is solid, he wins matches against Andy Murray.  The ability of Andy to try to break down the Federer backhand and not feed the Swiss confidence on it will be a huge part of the outcome of the match.  In my view, Andy must try to attack the Federer forehand if he wants to have any success.  Roger has been moving better to his backhand side, and he defends better on that side as well on grass, where he is able to slice the ball with incredible cut and precision.  On the other hand, Roger's forehand cross-court was exceptional against Djokovic in the semi, so Murray may have to tread the waters with caution if he looks to attack Fed's favourite shot.

As with the match against Djokovic, Fed must use all his variety - meaning the slice, the down-the-line backhand, and the different spins and angles that he can deliver on the ball.  He must serve well, and using the body serve on both first and second serves would be a wise move in my book, since Andy has such a long reach with his big, lanky frame.

I believe if Andy is to have any chance to win the match, he must win the first set.  This will be easier said than done, because surely the nerves will be at large, and if he lets down for a moment, Federer could pounce and take the match out of Murray's hands (this is what happened in the Australian Open final).  Any must use the crowd to his advantage and he cannot afford to get complacent.  He must attack, even if his gut instincts tell him to defend and counter-punch against the all-aggressive Roger.

Another thing that may go against Andy's ability to win the first set is the unknown.  As Djokovic experienced against Roger in the semi, playing the Swiss on grass is different than playing him on any other surface.  Andy will need to adapt to playing Roger on grass and he must find a way to return Roger's serves effectively - they bounce differently on grass and it is a much more effective shot (just ask Nadal and Djokovic).  Murray will also need to serve well, which is a given.  But he cannot expect Roger to return poorly like Tsonga did.

I expect Roger to win in 4 sets.  The match will ride on the tactics both men employ, but it is clear that there will be enormous pressure on each man as they know how much this match means to them.  How they handle the weight of the occasion will play a vital role, without any doubt.  I will close by saying this: if Murray plans on playing the match exactly like he did in Dubai earlier in the year, he will lose.  He must find a way to get out of his comfort zone and find ways to attack, or else Fed will be all over him.

Overall, I believe that Roger will find the zone at some point in the match and pull away.  This is what I like to call the "Federer Freight Train," because it is impossible to catch him when he gets on a roll.  Andy must be very cautious, and knowing the likelihood that Fed will find his rhythm at some point in the match, Murray must try to weather the storm.  That means he has got to dig his heels in and fight - and most importantly, not go into defending counter-puncher mode.  That will cost him the match.

Here is hoping for a great final!

PS: If Federer uses the confidence gained from beating Djokovic so decisively, I can only see Andy putting up a great fight but falling short.  Nobody has been able to beat Roger when he is at his absolute best at Wimbledon, with perhaps the only exception being Rafael Nadal in 2008.  If Roger plays anywhere near as well as he did against Djokovic, he might be too much to handle, with all the pressure Murray has on him to break through here.